Areas to the south of Alfred will suffer the brunt of winds and storm surge as cyclone makes landfall
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Mar 5th)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- XL cyclone swells through NENSW and Gold Coast Thurs, more manageable Sunshine Coast
- Winds becoming gale force S’ly as TC Alfred approaches Thurs
- Coastal crossing expected southern Moreton Bay or Northern Gold Coast- may change, stay tuned
- Cleaner surf on the Sunshine Coast with offshore winds Thurs/Fri
- Friday likely a write off for most of the region as TC Alfred crosses the coast- strong onshore winds and storm surf
- Onshore winds and easing surf over the weekend
- Small E’ly swell next week but onshore E’ly winds likely
- Buckle up and stay tuned for updates!
Recap
Pumping cyclone surf across the Gold Coast points yesterday, pulsing between 4-6ft and 6-8ft most of the day. Smaller surf across the Sunshine Coast in the 4-6ft range and building surf across NENSW through the day to 8-10ft or bigger all under S-SE winds. Winds have increase today to gales across NENSW into the southern Gold Coast with surf building to 12-15ft across open stretches in NENSW, 8-10ft on the Gold Coast and 5-6ft+ across the Sunshine Coast (smaller into more protected points) as TC Alfred makes his final approach into SEQLD.
Still some big pits in amongst wash-throughs at Kirra this morning
Heavy cyclonic caves out the back of the Alley- ski assist required
This week (Mar5-7)
TC Alfred (981 hPa) is currently less than 300 nm (nautical miles) due E of Brisbane and moving W at around 6kts towards the SEQLD Coast. There may be some wobbles in the track as it approaches the coast which may have a material effect on the crossing point goes but as far as surf size is concerned everything is pretty locked in. Massive surf from the Moreton Bay Islands across the Gold Coast and down through Northern NSW will continue until the cyclone crossing, with much smaller surf on the Sunshine Coast and into temperate NSW. It’s been an epic event with a gnarly exclamation point expected as Alfred makes landfall.
In the short run there’s not a great deal to refine for the forecast. We’re looking at massive wave heights across the Northern Rivers as Alfred approaches, a little less on the Gold Coast and much smaller surf on the Sunshine Coast. There’ll be a mix of swell directions across the Far North Coast as Alfred draws near.
Mostly E/SE through today and into tomorrow, in the 12-15ft range south of the border to Coffs, a little smaller through the rest of the region, grading 5-6ft with 8ft sets on the exposed Sunshine Coast beaches (much smaller into more protected points).
Through tonight and into tomorrow we’ll see those swell trains from the E-E/NE in the mix from gales to severe gales across the E-NE quadrant of Alfred, which is expected to intensify under more favourable baroclinic conditions.
Those swell trains will be most dangerous for erosion and storm surge across the Far North Coast late Thurs into Fri.
Hard to see any surfing happening across most of the region tomorrow except for the Sunshine Coast which will see fresh offshore winds from the cyclonic outflow.
Probably the same again for Fri, although there is a possible window of lighter winds across the Gold Coast if the eye of the cyclone passes over or tracks just north. Very low probability and more likely we’ll see winds shift E/NE-NE early Fri morning.
Winds on the Sunshine coast should shift W through NW Fri morning then possibly NE depending on how fast the cyclone moves inland.
Latest runs have the cyclone falling apart Fri after it crosses but becoming slow moving, which would be a worst case outcome for flooding.
Watch this space and take it easy- natural hazards will likely outweigh surfing considerations through most of Thurs and Fri.
This weekend (Mar 8-9)
As Alfred moves inland as a decaying system it will drag a moist E/NE-E flow across most of the Eastern seaboard, making surfing mostly a write-off for the sub-tropics, apart from the Sunshine Coast.
We’ll still see plenty of stormy E-E/NE swell to 6-8ft or more Sat, easing into Sun.
Lighter NE winds Sun, look to favour the Sunshine Coast.
Next week (Mar 10 onwards)
Not much on offer next week at this stage. High pressure in the Tasman with an onshore flow and small, workable E’ly swells in the 2 occ. 3ft range most of the week according to GFS outlook.
EC is still suggesting a trough of low pressure developing E of Tas with a chance for a spike in S swell, possibly of good quality Wed.
For the most part, it looks like a week of small, unremarkable surf - good for a clean up and scoping new sandbars, hopefully without too much damage from TC Alfred.
We’ll see how it looks Fri.
Seeya then.
Comments
Fresh chat.
Just saw a close-out set at the Alley.
Palmy Reef recorded 8.92m at about 8.30 this morning.
Significant increase from midnight.
Just saw a guy get barreled at Alex Bluff :)
I took a peak at the bluff cam earlier and it looked about as good as it gets (that's not exactly saying much).
All the best to you and your crew there FR. Your stretch of coast starting to sure up as ground zero.
Gotta say the NSW side of things has been piss poor.
Been trying to help out some friends with details of evacuation centres and can't even find anything online.
Anyone got any links to what will be open around Byron/Lennox/Ballina??
Check this link out @southernraw:
https://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/during-an-emergency/evacuation-centres#evacua...
Ahhh you're a legend.
Thanks so much @pjbyron.
I'll try and find out.
Love the Alley caption - “heavy cyclonic caves” indeed.
Stay safe all.
Never seen bigger waves right as of right now. 3 skis out Burleigh.
Paging Mr D H D to Burleigh
bogged a rail
The Tweed Offshore buoy had a reading of 15m max wave earlier this morning and is still showing around 10m
Massive sets at Burleigh. Huge.
Bribie Island is gonna be in pieces after this.
Can't remember energy in it like this, if it goes over the espy Golden's gonna be a pool.
Really big on the sunny coast. Way too unfit.
Anyone know what the reef is that's about 3kms out to sea off Mooloolaba is?
Probably the inner gneerings. How’s it breaking?
Bit hard to see other than its definitely breaking
Mate I saw a formed set breaking on the horizon standing on the headland of pt Arkwright looking east this morning. Never seen anything break out there before
Was watching the offshore feathering some giant lefts on the inner Gneerings. With binocs or a 500mm+ telephoto you can see it breaking. Watched one rogue giant one which looked like it broke out near the blinker. Always seen it on charts saying 'breaks in bad weather' and always wondered what exactly that entailed for it to break... well, here we are.
Even bigger on the open SC beachies now than lunchtime - this is insane!
After giving up trying to surf went and watched at dead man's. Saw someone catch one definitely more than 2x overhead.
Bloody hell.
Latest GFS (00Z) stalls Alfred off the Gold Coast all day Fri AND Sat, then moves it up to the Sunny Coast, eventually making landfall Sunday.
Far out....
Sky news weather reporting the same
Ikon also has it stalling until Saturday
Yep UKMO also running that nightmare scenario, 2 of 6 models I have just looked at. We need to keep remembering how much the track changes every 6 hours.
Thats has to be an outlier, surely.
Just did a recce of Byron Bay.
Beach widths are holding up OK- there's still the vegetated corner at Clarkes.
Water has come up a fair way but beach profiles are flat, there's no sign of storm berms or any major loss of beach profile.
Water is up against the rockwalls at Belongil and the creek is high- but I think the rockwalls and sandbags there will stop houses falling in, even if it transfers erosion further up the beach.
Surf is breaking about 500 metres off the Cocked Hat rocks at Broken and the shark listening station that was off Lennox Point has been washed in at Sharpes.
Main Beach Byron was surfable 4-6ft- The Wreck was an angry 6-8ft and the whole Bay is full of cloud breaking reefs and shoals.
Saw a 15 wave 10ft+ set at Belongil, broke on an outer reef and steamrolled in the whole way.
Not much agreement on what Alfreds next move is now. Feels like there is much more of the story to play out yet.
Just watched a 10+ wave set push into cooly 10-12ft crazy amount of water pushing in
Can add 5 Ft or more to that....
3 PM onwards on Alley Cam Rewind Huge Waves
Was hard to judge size it's breaking so far out huge size couple waves would of been 15ft easy
I was down the Alley at 3.00pm. Would have easily been 15ft.
Been here 18 years & biggest I’ve seen it. 1 ski out doing old school towing & I’m calling 5-6 times overhead.
Saw a 3 yo todder get washed into the groyne & go underwater. Very scary & as close to a drowning as I’ve ever seen.
Please watch your kids!
Definitely an outlier, all access ec and icon all have the crossing thurs eve/fri morn south of brissy.
I checked main beach at lunch, there were some nice tubes getting had, plenty of punishment for taking the wrong one too, down the wreck and belongil looked dangerous af and there was no one out.
Going to be very interesting to get a look at the beaches Saturday morning, i have a feeling the beach cafe could well end up in the sea this time, sandbags and reveg wouldn't be designed to withstand such big, relentless waves, especially when the direction goes more ENE.
Not Icon.
Yeah it's an outlier.. but.. not all models have issued their 00Z update yet.
Also.. a coastal crossing scenario was also an 'outlier' possibility last week.
Tropical cyclones can do weird things near the coast. Rapidly intensify, or weaken, or speed up, or decelerate. So given how slowly it's moving, I wouldn't rule out anything until it's all over.
Yeh wow, be crazy if it sits off the coast for 2 days spewing rain and intensifying then heads north
Absolutely monstrous on the MNC and nowhere handling. Even super protected bays. Crazy shit.
Mysto sandbar worth a trial?
Send me to gaol if I've given it away.
Nope, maxing and washing past it!
!
It's washing through from spots I've only ever seen feather/cap a little at best, just insane.
One of the best clips of the day I have seen is on @thedingshop (Anthony Pols) story - 2 local clubbies making it out at Burleigh on kneeboards and catching an absolute bomb, unbelievable effort.
https://www.instagram.com/stories/thedingshop/3581256972945546552?igsh=Z...
That’s Phil Clayton. Ironman & swim coaching guru.
That’s Phil Clayton. Ironman & swim coaching guru.
He’s been getting all he can of Alfred. Saw him and another guy standing up on their clubbie mals while getting some bombs OTB at snapper on Tuesday morning.
There are banks out to sea here (or reefs), huge waves breaking kms out to sea, unreal. My beaches are gone already (just north of byron)
Speaking of outlier and GFS, here's a question for you forecasters. While EC is probably seen as the better of the global models - if you twist most people's arms - I never disregard GFS when dealing with tropical energy. Just something 25 years of forecasting has instilled in me.
What's your feeling?
Gee I hope that forecast is wrong Ben
Gone eerily calm north BNE
EC is delaying it as well now! Crazy and no good at all. The longer it hangs around the way worse the flooding.
Access also has it stalling
kawana just south of sbends looked like mexico , today till about 2 pm
was big clean , jetski needed , no takers
https://www.facebook.com/groups/sunshinecoastsurf/permalink/922596945750...
https://www.facebook.com/groups/sunshinecoastsurf/permalink/922596945750...
wow , some good ones
The waves breaking out beyond the point at the Super Bank are Fucking Gigantic!!! Is there anyone still in the water or have most taken shelter?? A swell for the ages for sure!!
Saw some behind froggies that were unbelievable too.
Sick story to this one.
Shit the bed, sickest wave seen so far
This is god damn epic. What a legend.
Solid tune selection too for the clip and story.
I sat the cursor on the eye on Earth null at 1600hrs (qld) this arvo.
It hasn't moved.
If anything it's shifted a tiny bit East
Could be more to this story
Is Earth Null Real Time?
Earth Null
a visualization of global weather conditions
forecast by supercomputers
updated every three hours .
Completely glassed off at Sunshine Beach late this afternoon. Not a drop of wind, eery. 8-10+ foot sets, no takers.
Surfed tea tree earlier with only 15 others, 4-6 foot and a lot of fun, while 100 folk competed over the odd 3 ft set at the pot.
Baffles me.
TC Violet track March 1995
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/violet.shtml
Bom notes later time of crossing of latest model runs but still thinks it crosses Fri.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 7:44 pm EST on Wednesday 5 March 2025
The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast during Friday, noting that latest weather model data indicates the potential for a later crossing time than previously indicated. Location of crossing still remains most likely between Maroochydore and Coolangatta.
I am exhausted. After complaining about a sh*t summer, I feel like I’ve just spent a week on a boat in Indo. Bouncing between the Sunshine Coast and snapper…bloody hell. Kirra yesterday arvo…fark me dead. I have nothing left in me and need a month of Osteo and physio treatment. Back to fishing. Will be sharing the stories of this week with my kids for years. Unbelievable.
ausome cam.jw.
personally this thred is more entertaining that the 1 wave i may or may not have got and got burnt on.
currently as an arm chair critic i ask myself. A. would my brain have let me drop into a 6-10 ft kirra bomb. B. what would i do when about to get propper barrled on my backhand for the first time in 45 years. C. i wont even remember ther name of this cyclone in 5 years. D is the inlaws patrol going to get bogged in the front yard again in sunny grafton.
Watched it for a bit this arvo at Alex, was pretty sizey!
Given the wind directions over the next couple of days in combination with the Sunny Coast missing the brunt of the swell and rain, could the next couple of days potentially be the best of the event so far up this way? Luckily I’ll be ‘working’ from home tomorrow and Friday.
Looks like it's stalling out to sea. Later crossing, possibly milder wind-wise too.
The wind outlook has improved with it staying out to sea a touch longer which is good.
Alfie’s gonna get an automatic fail of his licence test with this many stalls.
Ha!
Latest GFS (left) and UK runs, valid 00Z and 12Z tomorrow. Almost makes landfall, then both models steer it northwards.
Thanks IB, yeah looks like it goes a touch north on Friday with EC's latest as well before moving inland early Saturday across Straddie.
Now with EC onboard, 00Z tomorrow
Does that also show it weakening a bit?
You would expect windspeeds to be less as the cyclone interacts with land and falls apart a bit if it does that N'ly coast hop.
BOM still sticking solid to a Fri crossing in the latest cyclone advice issued at 5am this morning.
Kirra looking very nice this morning, and empty
Why on the bom does the current satellite image show the cloud mass south of the boarder but the cyclone track show it north of the boarder?
Haven't seen the image but the strongest winds are on the southern flank of the cyclone, and those winds are also laden with moisture from the warm ocean, so places south of the axis - i.e Tweed and Byron Coasts - will cop the worst of the rainfall.
Sunny Coast, for example, will have a SW outflow, meaning wind blowing from off the land, so have lower rainfalls.
might be cos the satellite images are a bit skew-iff. if only the earth was flat!
Definitely looks like its brewing up on the S to SE flank to slingshot in this direction.
BOM maybe have a little bit of duty of care / politics mixed up with their science.
Just landed Brisbane airport. Not a single bounce of turbulence on the way in.
Haha, that's bloody good fortune. Great to hear.
https://qldtraffic.qld.gov.au/cameras.html
Mental, empty!
Just drove from the sunny coast to Brisbane. Had the Bruce to myself! Nice weather too
We had power off last night and for a couple of hours this morning.
Guy going Metal in a Thunder Cat 1k off Kirra
hows the Tinny cruising past greenmount 5 minutes ago on the Cam.?? Idiots
Just did a little research on SEQLD cyclones.
3-6Mar 95 TC Violet approached SEQLD coast as a weakening Cat 2. No crossing as it pivoted away within 50km of the coast. I was overseas so have no recollection of the surf. Here is the track.
Early Feb 1990 TC Nancy approached the coast and then hugged as an extra-tropical system. I was in Sunshine Beach and recall a pumping Noosa swell on the approach. 6-8 ft Boiling Pot. No crossing.
Track below.
TC Hamish approached K'gari (Fraser) and then turned away in Mar 2009. That provided the swell for Finals Day for the Quikkie Pro at Kirra between Parko and Mick Fanning.
Track below.
Last actual coastal crossing I can find is TC Wanda which crossed Jan 24 1974 at Double Island Point and then decayed to a trough producing Brisbane Flood of '74.
I attach that map, and the current one for comparison.
Of note, both feature monsoon trough over Northern Australia and strong high in Tasman, both providing immense moisture infeeds.
TC Zoe crossed at Coolangatta Mar 12 '74 and recurved and went back out to sea almost immediately.
Track below.
Thanks Steve, this information is gold. I was wondering how many TCs we have had within a few hundred kms which may not have been documented as crossings.
Obviously these provide better or equivalent swells without the disaster.
Does seem certain despite the slowing track this will cross and as you note it looks most akin to ‘74, or ‘54.
Zoe 9th march 74
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973%E2%80%9374_Australian_region_cyclone_...
Cheers mate, TC Zoe track map added above.
Legend Steve, this could have been an article.
Third time lucky hey Steve
https://coastwatch.com.au/video/tc-violet-march-1995/
classic footage - includes the left in the GC seaway which no longer exists. Also one of the events that helped moved the headland at cotton tree near the maroochy river mouth towards the northern side..
I used to love that left in the Seaway- such a good wave!
How come it disappeared? Dredging?
"In May 1986 the project was finished and immediately Greg and Wayne, and others such as Thornton Fallander and Mark Bennetts began exploring around the bar as new currents formed and deposited sand in unexpected ways. By 1987 an excellent lefthander had formed inside the northern wall about 150 metres down from the tip. "It was an incredible dredging left," says Wayne McKewen. "A really serious wave that broke in cyclone swells or big east lows.
""Oh, it was mentally good," says Doris. "A radical drop that was super hollow and ran for a bit. Darren Hill, Brimmsy, and Wick Wack ripped the bag out of it." But the wave was limited. "Ebb tides only" says Doris with a laugh, "Otherwise you'd be sucked out the rivermouth. The current was outrageous."
"The Seaway left was a design anomaly, a result of the entrance channel "finding equilibrium" according to Professor Rodger Tomlinson who did his PhD on the Seaway. The bank was at its best for the first 3 to 4 years and by the mid-90s it only broke in huge swells. Tropical Cyclone Violet in March 1995 was the wave's last stand, though we're geting a little ahead of the story."
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2020/10/06/south-straddie-the-castle-made-sand
Mum & dad tell me that they were living in a caravan at Kirra in ~81 when there was a cyclone crossing?
(possibly an ex-cyclone or extratropical system when it crossed).
Great stuff FR. They all look like they made more or less steady progression down the coast towards land, whereas Alfred has been strolling along out to sea for ages before making that sudden turn.
And I guess all the data from those cyclones is informing the current modelling.
Violet was epic. Had an incredible session out 2nd's dicky reef on the back side of the swell. Some very good large wurtulla too.
Impossible to put a size on the Tweed Coast, it's victory-at-sea, maybe 15ft?
Lucky you flew in earlier Ben. Brizzy flights now cancelled
Yep. Even better was the traffic down the M1... hardly anything! Sun was out and there wasn't any wind until I got to about Yatala.
Tuesday it was all caravans heading south and army vehicles heading north, should have been the other way around.
Hey Ben, kudos to your vision with all the cams. I've always wondered what does a cyclone look like as it crosses, never been in one. Now I get to see - the views from the Goldy skyscrapers are insane. 39 here, some summer closeouts but I'm too far from the beach and catching up on housework.
For all local crew, take care and hope your loved ones, selves and property come out OK.
Still patches of blue sky about now and then. Some ~30kn gusts of wind and a shower patch here and there, but very mild so far up here.
Watching Gold Coast news conference. Apparently guy is missing. with jet ski washed up at dbah.
Kirra live had a bloke on a jetski and another on zodiac this morning.. .
Someone unaccounted for on Gold Coast on a jetski.
Apparently ski debri's washed up at Dbah breakwall and the trailer and car are still in the carpark.
2 Jet skis on Kirra Big Groyne cam visible at 8am, 8:30, 9am, gone 9:30, back at 10 or so. Sometimes 2, sometimes 1.
That's just the first few seconds of each segment
Been gale force here all day- stronger gusts.
How's the live wind at Beechmont, 54.5kn gust is getting up there, ripping up the hill: https://holfuy.com/en/weather/1342
Sunrise 31.9kn top gust so far: https://holfuy.com/en/weather/569
Curras 40.5kn top gust so far: https://holfuy.com/en/weather/1583
Cheers Sprout. I didn’t know holfuy was up and running again at Sunrise.
ahh sorry @andymac. Didn't see your post above.
Hoping for the best for the ski driver.
Yeah, must be watching same clip.
Hope all good with u mate.
Never seen SC this big.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/sunshinecoastsurf/permalink/923122876364...
Yep, yesterday is the biggest I've ever seen it, most energy in it too.
Yeah same had a look out front, breaking way out, at least another 200m out from norm with some massive closeouts...
Never seen it like that.
even west Stradbroke Island is cooking, its category six there !
Getting hectic up the hill here. Neighbour just lost the capping off his roof. Tarps and sandbags now. Horizontal rain
Bluff looks the best its ever been?
At the pass now... just saw a set hit Julian Rocks that covered the entire thing. wow!
Around 3;23 Cam Rewind
The Caba point cam gives a good view of what the true open ocean conditions are like at the moment.
Few surfers trying to get out through Spot X.
One just got washed around the groyne and is coming in.
Second one is now too.
That said, there are two more who have made it and are coming across Cooly Beach.
There have been the odd crew on Kirra throughout the day.
Palmy Reef ...Flattened after this ?
They're obviously not married :)
Spot x had some good ones earlier
Wonder if Alfreds little loop last night just backed the surf off a little this morning. Guessing it'll ramp up even more again through the arvo now it's motion is back towards the coast.
Mooloolaba buoy reading dropped almost 2 m overnight. Been building again all day.
he doesn't seem to have moved much in the last 6 hours
Cheers for the report @durutti.
Yeah i reckon it'll muscle up bigtime again in the next phase of the system.
Big Piece of Debri near wall on Dbah Cam
is it a log or part of a ski?
https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/gold-coast/jetski-rider-feared...
Power poles and lines down on River street Ballina.
And it's still a day away from the main system.
Hectic!
Edit: also the Big Prawn has lost one of it's feelers!!
"the Big Prawn has lost one of it's feelers!!"
Now that's just the last straw! :)
My thoughts exactly!!
It'll grow back.
Lots of businesses sandbagging around here.
Heard the first prediction of river levels at Lismore, they're saying 10m, which is lower than the levee at about 10.75m.
Sounds less-than-catastophic, fingers crossed.
Though let's see how that translates to Ballina with this wind and swell raising sea levels and potentially blocking river outflow.
Big props to the fella I just watched on the Spot x cam and across to Big Groyne cam. 40 hectic duck dives and he's out there, in line with the hut. Hope you get a sick one legend! Only two out!
Have noticed a slight weakening of the core up to 990 hPa. It's been hovering in the mid 980s for most of the last few days as far as i've seen.
Might be the first sign of some slightly better news.
Alfred is falling apart as it approaches.
Moving so slowly it caused upwelling and cut itself off from the energy source.
Interesting.
I like it but not willing to commit to that yet. I feel like he might take a dramatic last minute turn to the NW towards that warmer water and crash land somewhere more towards sunny coast. Terrible news for goldy and Brisbane. But worst of your winds on your stretch of coast might actually b now through to morning. We shall see.
GFS, Icon, Access and EC now seem to suggest very heavy rain on Brisbane on Saturday. With NNSW seeming to be less affected? I’m new to this and just using the windy app, but it seems like a notable recent change.
Latest modelling shows a Moreton Bay crossing and then Ex Alfred moving NE, which drags the focus of the heaviest rain bands with it- so focused on Brisbane.
Yeah cheers for that FR.
Without having seen the data, i'd imagine Moreton Bay would be substantially warmer than the open ocean.
Possible reintensification as it crosses it slowly maybe? Can't imagine if it crosses between Nth and Sth Straddie that it'll break it up too much.
Actually a little cooler with the EAC driving the warmer temps in the open ocean..
ah true! Well that's good then.
Cheers Craig.
Just saying....
What do the ssts say
That doesn’t show it but the Mooloolaba reading closer inshore has dropped a degrees in 24 hours
Either way the cloud mass is almost 400km x 200km and approaching the coast. A hell of a lot of potential rainfall even at tropical depression levels
Shit I was thinking about if that happens today after Craig’s post yesterday. Maybe a couple of brain cells are getting frisky.
What you might call an active sea state.
Cant read your bloody east coast graphs but if thats high energy at 25secs in the mix with the higher energy mid period stuff, hats a worry for whats approaching. Big storm.
Basically there's energy coming from every direction at every interval.
Yikes! Guessing it's those long period sets that are sweeping the punters off their feet walking their dogs etc.
I wouldn’t trust that Stu, Byron buoy started drowning and misbehaving on 1/3, could even be in the southern ocean by now!
Latest model coastal crossing ETA:
ACCESS - 5am Sat
GFS - 8am Sat
EC - 8am Sat
UK Met - 2pm Sat
Here's The NZ Herald. Fine bit of journalism:
"The Bureau of Meteorology updated its estimated impact time to 1.53am overnight."
Who forgot to turn off the AI machine when they left the office last night?
Ha, oh dear.
https://www.youtube.com/live/aX_1Ankk5k0?si=Bn7Nw25W1IYJynJK
I wonder if Cape Byron will set a record for most consecutive days with winds gusting above 100km/h or something of the like.
Any idea what is causing the night time loop-de-loops? On the TC track Alfred has done carving 360s for the last 2 nights. There has to be an explanation. Is it a change of tide thing where the clockwise motion of the cyclone over takes sea surface driven directional forces? Or a drop in sst from the sun disappearing over the horizon?
Lack of any major steering influences in the upper atmosphere as discussed in this article..
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2025/02/27/whats-steerin...
It's pretty amazing eh.
Thanks Craig. So the observation that this has happened over the last 2 nights would tell me that there is something occurring in the day time hours that stops when the sun goes down. Would you put money on a third loop de loop tonight? I would
In my very limited experience of interpreting fish population models they seem to smooth things out i.e knock down the high points and inflate the low. So although the modelling hasn’t captured the loops the direction and speed is taken into account by the model and contributes to the forward projections giving us a maximum likelihood track
Yeah good question, will try and look into it!
One weather video I watched ,the guy said because the cyclone has an elongated centre , it causes the cyclone to wobble . He likened it to a washing machine spinning with too much weight to one side.
Haha tonic-clonic cycle
Alf has been watching Kelly and his carving 360s . Let's hope, just like Kelly he rides off quietly into the sunset .....
Ol mate Kirra live streamer does a seaway surf check @ 07.20 https://www.youtube.com/live/1t2FYlWcPcg?si=GhpwGImkePIVJkI_
Gale force SE winds here.
I'd be cautious about using Cape Byron as a proxy due to the elevation- it's always 5-10kts higher especially in S-SE winds.
Not too much coastal damage here- half a tuckeroo snapped off and blocking my driveway which is the biggest tree down I could see between Lennox-East Bal.
Amazingly a large coastal banksia next to it, is still standing- thought that would go for sure.
Lucky there's an old driveway to bush bash.
It's still crawling- might be more loop de loops ahead.
Beaches have been carved away but dunal structure is pretty intact.
I think with the sustained duration of the event storm bars have done a good job of absorbing wave impact.
We may have double, triple or even quadruple storm bars happening here.
There's going to be a long hangover from this event.
Emirates 380 Departing BNE for Dubia ...Empty
That was a wild night on the GC. Looks like Main Beach has copped a flogging -
https://preview.redd.it/welcome-to-the-gold-coast-v0-gwlhi4a435ne1.jpg?w...
https://preview.redd.it/welcome-to-the-gold-coast-v0-duqypp2535ne1.jpg?w...
What a difference 2 days makes.
Wednesday, monstrous, biggest I've ever seen it.
Today, dry hair paddle out, clean as a whistle 3-4ft bit of fun on a mediocre bank.
Interesting though, the 24 hour rainfall totals on the northern rivers and southern GC are pretty standard - so far - for a typical subtropical downpour day - topping out at about 150mm. Nothing scary - yet.
I also notice looking at the rain radar (there is a great view of the cyclone using the 256km Brisbane Mt Stapylton one) that the rain is coming in bands rather than blobs.
So just looking at that I’m not seeing an unprecedented rain event but maybe this is just the entrée.
The destructive wind zone is still to hit the coast.
Starting to feel like a big media beat up. Nothing out of the ordinary so far, bit of wind and rain and people acting like we’re all about to die.
It’s a pretty unpredictable system from start to finish so if it doesn’t destroy too much shit then good.
I don’t think they’ve beat it up, just that the whole situation is unknown.
That said, I don’t watch tv lol
It's just delayed Burleigh, totals forecast for SE Qld are still significant.
Northern Australia live through this every wet season. It barely gets a mention on the news unless it's a Cat 4+.
It's comical the coverage and complete hysteria given to the "Great South East".
I agree Fitz, but with the population density of SE Qld and the forecast track it has the potential to devastate a lot more people than a Cat 4+ that may or may not cross through a North Qld city, town or community. Like Tasmania, it's all relative!
Agree with lostdoggy, we all hope it fizzes but the public servants and government have a responsibility to warn the public of the possible range of outcomes and the media just reports that (and obviously part of that game is ensure the worst case scenario is highlighted).
But I wouldn’t call it a beat up. It doesn’t happen often so it’s news.
But so far in terms of rainfall which I think is the real danger here (everyone from North Queensland is laughing at all the anxiety about a “little” cat 2) I’m not yet seeing anything like some of the rainfall in the past when the weather just sits over the region for a week without moving.
Agree Burls, mainstream stuff is ridiculous, 5% of stuff is worth paying attention to, the rest is Women's Weekly shit.
But at the same time, around here if you weren't filling sandbags and making preparations in the last few days, you were foolhardy.
On my morning surf check they had interviews on the radio with people that have moved pillows and blankets into their bathrooms, if that's not causing fear then i don't know what is.
Haha that's a bit crazy. I think the longer it has stalled, and with the news being constantly streaming since yesterday, it just draws things out longer for the general public.
Redlands (Stradbroke Island) Area; Cyclone - Emergency Warning Friday 4pm
"You may need to go to the strongest, safest part of the building you are in. This will be away from big windows. It could be a bathroom, walk-in wardrobe or hallway. Stay there. This could take several hours.
Emergency services will not be able get to you because it is too dangerous."
https://disaster.redland.qld.gov.au/
Latest track map has a massively reduced destructive wind zone (120 - 155kmh) which the latest forecast says will be now limited to the Moreton islands and northern GC.
So likely no need to board up windows!
They probably get their 'news' from Facebook or the Sky weather hottie who can barely pronounce cyclone.
Sun is out right now in Burleigh.
lol I wondered how long before someone called it a beat up. More predictable than a cyclone's trajectory.
Some advice from a north QLDer....
Hahahaha, so true. And that ending with the dog.
Hundreds of ancient loggers are awakened by the pounding swells & heading out from the Bribie Island sand dunes today; for 100 years of surfing and diving... if their lucky.
https://www.youtube.com/live/Hv9NVGFv9SE
Help them out and remove any plastic rubbish, ferals & 4WDs off the dunes
very limited 4wd access in both of those nesting areas ,
emergency services, clubbie can-ams and licensed fisherman only.
Hervey bay is copping it , 240mm in the last 3 hrs.
Wow!
Must be super localised, zero in bundy and maryborough
Storm in a tea cup.
You'd be the first person to cry conspiracy if you weren't warned properly.
Just my opinion southern, Paul, Bluediamond. Complete over reaction from MSN. You should get around and actually ask people that live here instead of reading articles from WA or wherever the fuck you live
BBB!! 4220!! (singular).
You're a troll. Nothing more to add.
Following me around calling me a troll. You can’t make this stuff up. I made 1 comment on each page about the media beat up on the lead up to Alfred and you’ve kicked off another tantrum.
Just go away pest.
Over and out @trolleigh.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-09/shipwreck-ballina-shelley-beach-e...