South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 24 Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun tradeswells this week, with SE-E winds favouring the Points
• Small pulse of long period E’ly swell likely from TC Rae Thurs into Fri
• Tradeswells continue into the weekend
• Further increase in size likely from Sun as TC Alfred moves south
• Still lots of uncertainty over top end as we wait to see what TC Alfred does
• Solid E’ly swells into next week- possibly XL with gales if TC Alfred approaches SEQLD
• More E’ly swell long term as trades remain active

Recap

Lots of fun surf over the weekend, favouring the Points under classic SE conditions. There were some ups and downs but surf hovered in the 3-4ft range over the weekend- a little smaller into the more protected points with some more raggedy options across break walls and semi-protected spots. Today has seen surf muscle up a notch with more consistent 4ft surf the occ. 5ft set on offer with light winds now tending light/mod SE in SEQLD, more E’ly south of Byron-Ballina. The tropics is fully fired up at present, let’s take a look at the surf potential from the current pattern. 

Crystal cylinders aplenty on the QLD Points.

This week (Feb24-28)

A very long and broad tradewind fetch is anchored on a NW/SE axis by twin tropical cyclones. TC Alfred is meandering in the Coral Sea NE of Cairns, while TC Rae is NW of Fiji and moving south-south westwards. A broad high in the Tasman is supplying good support for these systems, with a new reinforcing high expected to move into the Tasman tomorrow and fulfil the same role. The trade-wind fetch is relatively robust and will be a long-lasting swell producer for the east coast, favouring sub-tropical areas for size. Confidence is low on the track for TC Alfred and thus it’s surf potential- a general slow southwards movement is expected which is favourable but we may still see a coastal crossing before the cyclone reaches it’s full potential as a surf generator. Much uncertainty still remains so stay tuned to notes and below the line comments through the week. 

In the short run, the forecast for the short term is straightforwards. The current tradewind belt will continue to supply pulsey 3-4ft surf through the working week. There will be subtle ups and downs due to fluctuations in wind strength in the trade belt and increased tidal amplitude leading up to the New Moon but they won’t affect surf size except at the margins. 

Nothing complicated about winds either this week. A new high moving into the Tasman tomorrow  resets the ridge so expect SE winds to regain mod strength tomorrow after todays lighter breezes. The exception will be the MNC-Coffs coast where the northern most extremity of a stalled trough should see lighter winds- land and seabreezes tomorrow and possibly Wed.

By the second half of the week we’ll see winds shift more E/SE in SEQLD, tending more E’ly in NENSW.

With the high moving eastwards, we’ll see a greater chance of morning land breezes in NENSW up to the Southern Gold Coast through Thurs and Fri. Less likely on the Sunshine Coast. 

 We may see some longer period E/NE swell make landfall Thurs,  generated by TC Rae as it enters the swell window due S of Fiji later today. It’s a very compact system and it needs to remain on that direct southwards track to generate swell. Given that, we could realistically expect some very inconsistent 3ft sets later Thurs into Fri. This is a cyclone swell but it is a flukey event so keep expectations pegged low. 

In the scheme of things, it may only add an occ. extra long lined set into the prevailing trade swell. 

This weekend (Mar 1-2)

Winds remain SE-E/SE in SEQLD over the weekend, tending more E-NE south of Ballina-Yamba.  It’s likely we will see a Cat 2 or 3 TC sitting in the Coral Sea and another tropical low (possibly a TC) drifting SE from between Vanuatu and Fiji. Surf potential for both of these systems is still subject to low confidence, although the sub-tropics is much more likely to see a significant boost from TC Alfred at a minimum over the weekend. 

 Don’t get too attached to current wave model data as it’s subject to change depending what happens in the Coral Sea. It’s likely Sat will remain in the 3-4ft range with a bigger increase on Sun but this is dependent on the track of TC Alfred and how far south it reaches. 

 Revisions are probable as we move through the week. 

Next week (Mar 3 onwards)

Everything depends on the movement of TC Alfred and the tropical low drifting into the South Pacific slot. 

EC has the system penetrating further south, with the southern extent of the wind field generating large E’ly swells through the region, possibly with onshore gales if the system crosses the Wide Bay to SEQLD coast. 

GFS has the system remaining further north, potentially with a more northerly CQ/Wide Bay crossing. That would see less headroom for surf and less chances for onshore gales.

At this stage it’s probably most realistic to expect a solid increase in E’ly swell into the first week of autumn hopefully not accompanied by holding onshores.

More E swell looks likely as the trade belt shows no sign of relaxing into the first week of March.

Check back Wed for the latest updates.