Expect tiny surf to continue over the weekend and into early next week as a trough off NSW disrupts the tradewind flow from a new high drifting into the Tasman.
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Across the Coral Sea we’ll see a slight increase in tradewinds around a broad E’ly dip near New Caledonia which will perk wave heights up through Wed into the 1-2ft range, albeit with N’ly winds.
A weak ridge from a high (1023hPa) tracking towards Tasmania supplies light winds tomorrow while TC Judy and Kevin both race away to the SE, supplying very little surf to the region.
The tropics remains active with a monsoon trough and convective activity strewn across the Top End, while the edge of the trough in the South Pacific has spawned TC Judy, with another system behind it. Both of those systems are now modelled to track quickly SE through the swell window with no major swells generated.
The troughy pattern will see a weakening trade flow in the Coral Sea this week and while all eyes are on the tropics it’s looking like a continuing tease with an expected tropical depression or TC moving quite quickly SE through the swell window with limited surf potential.
No great changes to the weekend f/cast. High pressure is now moving SE towards the tip of the South Island, maintaining a SE-ESE trade flow in the Coral Sea. Tradewinds are being enhanced by an active monsoon trough extending from the Arafura Sea into the Coral Sea.
Strong high pressure (1035 hPa) is now moving SE of Tasmania with an embedded trough along the advancing ridge ramping up wind speeds from the SSE-SE into the 20kts+ range. Conditions should settle as the high moves into the Tasman and weakens and the ridge relaxes through the end of the week. The high is augmenting an existing SE-ESE tradewind fetch through the Northern Tasman and Coral Seas and maintaining small E-SE swell.
Weak pressure gradients in the Coral Sea are producing light winds and tiny surf for CQ, with a weak trough of low pressure now moving North of Fraser Is. and dissipating.
Northerly winds and easing swells are on offer this week with weak pressure gradients in the Coral Sea.
Now that the low axis of TC Gabrielle has moved south of the CQ coast we’ll see diminishing swells.