A convective cloud mass between the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu is expected to consolidate and deepen into a tropical cyclone by mid week, tracking back into the Coral Sea towards the tropical QLD coast before recurving and drifting Southwards through the Coral Sea and eventually towards the North Island. Solid swell from this system is expected across most of the Eastern Seaboard. 

We’ve got a troughy, unstable synoptic pattern on our hands with monsoonal clouds and moisture extending from the Top End dawn to a trough off the NSW South Coast. Through the Coral Sea a NW monsoonal flow is bending from the tropics to become more N’ly. The upshot is more more tiny/flat surf for the CQ coast this week.

The synoptic pattern over and surrounding Australia still has a strong La Niña signature with troughy low pressure areas in the Tasman Sea and an active monsoon trough across Northern Australia. High pressure on the other side of New Zealand is cradling areas of low pressure aimed at NSW and SEQLD with the Coral Sea adjacent to the CQ swell window offering up very weak pressure gradients and swell generating winds.

In the Coral Sea a depression on the end of the Monsoon Trough  is organising with a high likelihood of forming a tropical cyclone (TC Freddy) - this is looking like a handy swell producer for the region although no real size is expected as the system weakens as the swell producing fetch moves into the swell window.