We’re now on the cusp of a dynamic, tropical induced blocking pattern with low pressure hiving off an active monsoon trough in the Coral Sea and meandering in Coral Sea before drifting down into the Northern Tasman. The high pressure belt holds good support for this low pressure area with reinforcing cells stacking onto a slow moving system located at South Island latitudes. This will see an extended E’ly swell event, with days of pumping E/SE swell ahead.
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By Boxing Day the broad blocking pattern will be setting with a dominant, slow moving high in the Tasman and low pressure expected to form along the monsoon trough line in the Coral Sea and in the South Pacific near the North Island. That will see at least dual swell producing fetches aimed at the Eastern Seaboard.
Next week is looking pretty fun as a monsoon trough off the QLD Coast and a large high moving into the Tasman reset the SE flow through the Southern Coral Sea, favouring the Capricorn Channel.
Typical winter set-up gets shunted aside by a very La Niña looking synoptic pattern this week, more reminiscent of Feb/Mar than July.
Over the weekend another monster high moves well south of the Bight and a series of troughs in the Coral Sea are likely to form either one or multiple surface lows in the basin.
The fetch is located on the edge of the CQ swell window so is likely to produce some E/SE groundswell at spots open to swell through the Capricorn Channel and north of the Breaksea Spit.
Looking to the end of the week and a trough of low pressure and a weak trade flow combine inside New Caledonia Wed/Thurs.
Both those factors will drive a series of strong cold fronts this week, with no meaningful swell for the CQ coast due to the acute Southerly swell direction.
No change to the outlook, winter cold fronts are now pushing across the south-east of the country with S swells for areas south of Fraser Island.
So with offshore winds expected and no tradewind or E’ly winds in the Coral Sea, expect tiny/flat surf to extend through this week and likely into next week too.