Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (updated on Mon 22nd Jan)

This week and next week (Jan22 -Feb2)

Central QLD: Fun sized swells associated with TC Kirrily this week- nothing too big

Fun waves this week as TC Kirrily crosses NQ coast.

Fun waves over the weekend

All the headline action is in the tropics with a cyclone (TC Kirrily) expected to form within the next 24-36hrs in the monsoon trough NE of Cairns. A coastal crossing in N.QLD now looks the most likely outcome with some surf potential for the CQ region, at least in the short/medium term. There are some model runs suggesting remnants of the TC could re-emerge into the Coral Sea next week and merge with a trough- details below. 

Current swell eases back through Tues but we should see a rebuild in size on Wed as winds build along the bottom of the cyclone.

Models are in good agreement TC Kirrily will cross the Burdekin coast (Townsville to Bowen) later Wed or Thurs. Wave models are suggesting an E/NE swell from the system as it tracks in towards the coast. We’ll pencil in 3ft surf through this period Thurs into Fri, with an outside chance some spots- may see larger longer period sets to 4ft+.

Nothing massive from TC Kirrily but a few fun waves this week

We should see easing surf into the weekend with minor E/NE swell to 1ft or so and NE winds.

Uncertain outlook for the f/cast region heading into next week. After a lot of model flip flopping it seems TC Kirrily will head inland although there are still model runs suggesting it re-emerges into the Coral Sea and joins up with a weak trough to form a trough of low pressure. We’ll see. That could potentially energise a windy short range E-E/SE swell early next week.  Failing that we are looking at small levels of local E swell through Mon-Wed at least. Nothing substantial but something workable each day but with generally onshore winds.

Otherwise the tropics remains active so we’ll keep monitoring that - although the focus of most of the modelled activity is over the continent there is a large area of low pressure expected to form near Vanuatu later next week. We’ll keep eyes on that region and report back Wed.

Seeya then.