Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (updated on Fri 19th Jan)

This weekend and next week (Jan19 -Jan26)

Central QLD: Cyclone swell likely next week

Small waves on low tides, solid next week if TC behaves as expected.

Only breaking on low tides

Not much change to the weekend f/cast. A compact low is tracking SE away from Tasmania with a nice slingshot fetch in the process of entering the Tasman adjacent to the Apple Isle. A retrograding fetch in the South Pacific is currently active and expected to send some fun surf our way over the weekend and into early next week. Expect some small 1-2ft surf at spots open to E/SE swell from the South Pacific.

Small E’ly swells to 1ft persist into next week from a cradling ridge under a developing tropical low.

All eyes on the Coral Sea where this tropical low is expected to deepen into a tropical cyclone that is expected to be slow moving (see below).

 Uncertainty over track remains high with GFS favouring a slide down the sub-tropical ridge to the SE while EC is favouring a coastal crossing on the NQLD coast. It’s highly likely under current modelling we will see some level of strong swell from the E/NE from mid next week. The range of outcomes remains very large however with size ranges from 3-4ft right up to 5-6ft or bigger still on the table depending on the cyclone strength, position and speed and direction of movement. Pencil in a few solid days Wed-Fri and keep tabs on the comments over the weekend as we update with real-time data.

Low confidence of course due to the unpredictable nature of cyclones so expect revisions on Mon- possibly major.

Until then, have a great weekend!