Proximate winds will generate a pretty bog standard winter-style spike in short range S swell.
Primary tabs
This pattern breaks down as we head into the weekend leaving a broad troughy area of low pressure in the Tasman which is expected to redevelop over the weekend and generate sizey S swells later in the weekend and early next week.
That trough is drawing down plenty of tropical moisture in the deep onshore flow, and generating sizey, stormy E’ly swells for the sub-tropics. Some of that swell energy will filter down to temperate NSW in reduced form but without all the bad weather, along with more local NE swells.
No change expected to the broad pattern next week with strong high pressure moving into the Tasman and a broad, deep E’ly fetch developing through the Coral Sea, with an embedded trough. Most of the swell energy from this system will be aimed at sub-tropical targets.
Over the weekend and next week the large high complex builds a broad E’ly fetch through the South Pacific and into the Coral Sea, generating sizey E swells for the sub-tropics with smaller E/NE swells filtering down to temperate NSW.
Pressure gradients will stay weak in our proximate and medium range spheres of influence so as the current E/SE swell ebbs away we’re in for a quiet spell on the surf front.
The weekend looks great for surf with a more manageable sized swell and clean morning conditions.
No change to the outlook as a massive, slow moving low pressure system in the Tasman and strong high over Tasmania combine to fill the Tasman Sea with gales to strong gales generating L to XL surf.
The start of a significant and sustained swell event is currently underway with wave heights not settling back until next week.
Gales to strong gales develop later Sun and o/night into Mon as a complex low forms in the Tasman. Multiple swell generating fetches are expected to form and sling shot around this huge, slow moving low gyre. Thus we can expect an extend period of large surf next week with embedded pulses from the S through S/SE-SE as the week goes on.