Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Dec 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• S’ly change Tues with minor swells
• Small grovel Wed with winds swinging NE in the a’noon
• Tiny on Thurs
• Flukey S groundswell Fri with NE winds
• Easing S swell Sat with a S’ly change in early
• Tiny surf into Sun
• Not much for the start of next week, more low energy surf 
• Minor SE swell possible Wed next week
• Possible NE windswell later next week

Recap

Not much on offer over the weekend. A small wave from the E/NE to 1-2ft Sat, with a slight boost in NE windswell in the a’noon under light morning breezes which tended N/NE in the a’noon. A S’ly change was in early Sun with just a brief window of SW breezes north of the Harbour. Small 2ft surf was on offer, with winds clocking around SE pretty quickly across the region. Light SE-E winds this morning with another day of small, weak surf offering up the occ. 2ft wave at open beaches. It’s not flat, but it is low energy, offering a grovel for the keen. Winds will clock around E/SE through E to E/NE-NE during the day as high pressure moves quickly into the Tasman. 

A bit of energy about the Hunter coast but quality is poor under a SE flow

This week (Dec 9-13)

A very weak troughy pattern is unfolding this week with a weak high pressure (1016hPa) cell moving into the Tasman today as a trough stalls about the Far North Coast. Another trough tomorrow brings a shallow S’ly change which again looks to stall out on the North Coast before another weak high cell moves into the Tasman late this week. In short, no major swells expected. There is a deep low expected to scoot through the lower Tasman, weakening as it does so which may offer some flukey S swell at S swell magnets Fri/Sat. Other than that, a low energy grovel is all that is on the menu. Nothing much on offer next week either, at this stage. Read on, if that outlook is not too depressing. 

In the short run we’ll see the trough pushing through the region early morning. Light winds for the dawny then a S’ly change increasing in strength by office hours and tending to mod SE’ly winds through the a’noon. Surf-wise we’re only looking at minor E’ly swells to 1-2ft at best with a small bump in short range SE windswell later in the day to 2ft. Uninspiring stuff.

Short range SE swell offers a grovel in the 2ft range Wed morning under a light S’ly flow (SW inshore early across the Northern Beaches) before winds quickly clock around to light/variable then NE breezes. 

That windswell then fades out for Thurs with a light NW-N flow tending to mod N/NE breezes in the a’noon. A 1-2ft wave on open beaches will be suitable for beginners and big boards.

Friday sees a light/mod NE flow with NW-N breezes inshore early so winds should be suitable for S facing beaches. As mentioned, we’ll see a flukey S groundswell generated by a fast moving compact low with severe gale force winds tracking into the lower Tasman (see below) Wed/Thurs. The system gets shunted SE and weakens as it enters the Tasman so we’ll keep expectations pegged low for a widespread event. S swell magnets should see some 2-3ft surf on Fri, persisting into Sat morning on an easing trend. As always with long period flukey S swells there may be some outliers at direct S facing reefs which can focus the energy. Elsewhere, small NE windswells should hold a weak 1-2ft wave.

This weekend (Dec14-15)

Another trough brings a S’ly change Sat so depending on timing, S facing beaches are likely to be blown out early. Easing S swells and a minor flush of S windswell in the a’noon is on the cards. Surf likely messy at most spots and under 2ft. We’ll revise through the week and see if there is an early morning window for S facing beaches. 

Nothing much for Sun with a tiny blend of short range windswells to 1-2ft under an onshore E-SE flow. 

Next week (Dec16 onwards)

Nothing of real interest as we moves into the week before Xmas. Weak winds in the Coral and Tasman seas suggest flabby little swells in the 1-2ft range under a light onshore flow Mon-Tues. We may see a little increase in SE swell Wed as the weekends trough tries to consolidate as it shifts towards New Zealand. That may see surf perk up a notch into the 2-3ft range. 

NE windswell is a possibility Wed/Thurs as winds freshen in advance of a trough, which looks to bring another shallow S’ly change without much surf behind it. 

A stronger high moving through the Bight later next week may set up a decent ridge along the coast, with tradeswell potential for the sub-tropics and some NE-E/NE swell for temperate NSW as we move into the weekend before Xmas. A tropical low we mentioned last week now looks to form further east and be more compact than last weeks modelling, both of which reduce surf potential. It may be a source of some small, background E swell just before XMas. 

Nothing concrete at this stage. 

In the absence of anything meaningful surf-wise, looks like a great week to get the Xmas shopping done.

Check back Wed for the latest.