The resulting high pressure ridge is leading to deep onshore flows and a trough along the coast is expected to move offshore Sun and form a broad trough of low pressure early next week. That should see improved conditions north of the low pressure trough.
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Another week of onshore SE winds with a few favourable windows around rain squalls and troughy areas
In fact, it becomes reinforced by a new high and this peanut high straddling Tasmania will hold a firm ridge along most of the Eastern Seaboard with another working week of SE-E winds, gradually backing off into the weekend. A stalled trough looks to linger off the coast bringing plenty of unstable weather and possibly windows of lighter winds.
Monster high pressure has barely budged since Wed, maintaining a S-SE flow right up the Eastern Seaboard, with a coastal trough ensuring plenty of unstable, rainy weather.
A storm force polar low is better aimed at Pacific targets but we’ll still see some long period S groundswell from it this weekend, with the proviso that S’ly winds will remain persistent.
Later polar fronts in the far southern/central Tasman remain strong and although better aimed at Pacific targets we’ll still see some significant sideband S’ly energy from them.
Things get interesting/dynamic from Tues. At issue is a trough and potential surface low in advance of a major high pressure ridge.
Friday looks solid as a range of mid period and longer period S swell trains generated by the proximate and deep fetches make landfall.
Some frontal activity to the south is poorly positioned and aligned but we will see a stronger frontal intrusion into the Tasman later this week, although not with an accompanying Tasman low as suggested on Friday.
As the low moves offshore Fri odds are firming we’ll see a major S swell develop as gales develop on the western flank of the low, proximate to the NSW coast.
Plenty of action in the tropics and subtropics next week but we’ll see a quiet opening to the week for temperate NSW, with some model divergence for later next week.