Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Dec 4th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Small blend Thurs and Fri with winds swinging back N’ly on Fri
• Possible window of improving  NE windswell Sat PM (more likely south of Sydney) as winds swing offshore
• S’ly change Sun with short range S’ly swells increasing PM
• Spike in S swell Mon next week
• Still looking at potential low pressure developments later next week- models all over the place so check in Fri for latest updates

Recap

Small, fun E/NE swells have kept up peaky beachies in the 2-3ft range with periods of lighter winds on offer around storms. A S’ly change has pushed through this morning confining clean conditions to sheltered locations with a brief period of widespread clean conditions on offer before the change.

A few clean peaks just as the S'ly change hit

This week (Dec 4-6)

A long tradewind fetch anchored by a 1024hPa high in the central SW Pacific is slowly retreating eastwards with a weak high cell expected to migrate into the Tasman overnight and tomorrow in the wake of a shallow trough now moving up the NSW Coast and expected to stall and wash out around the lower reaches of the MNC. Some decaying and fast moving frontal activity in the lower Tasman is currently scooting across that sea. Once the new high sets up shop in the Tasman we’ll see the N-NE flow which has been a constant for a month reset until another S’ly change arrives on the weekend. No major swells ahead as the pattern of weak, mobile high pressure continues but there’ll be some windows of opportunity with small NE windswell and minor flushes of S swell. Details below. 

In the short run there’s not much happening - just a small amount of short range S windswell and minor E/NE swells to 1-2ft. The pressure gradient eases rapidly so light morning breezes should have a W’ly component before tending S-SE then clocking around to light/variable E-NE seabreezes. 

Similar surf Fri with just a smidge more S swell from todays front, mostly privileging S facing beaches on the Hunter and other S magnets for a 2ft wave with the occ. bigger set. The early flow from the NW will quickly tend to N-NE breezes and kick up to mod paces as the high moves NE into spring/summer position. 

This weekend (Dec7-8)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure moves NE into the slot near the North Island, the N-NE flow freshens and extends northwards up the coast and we’ll see a small blend of NE windswell and E/NE swell from the top of the high build from 2ft into the 2-3ft range. No great quality expected under light N’ly winds, tending N/NE at mod/fresh paces during the day but a few rippable beachies should be on offer. Areas south of Sydney should see a late tilt to the NW as a trough approaches with an improvement in wave quality on the cards.

A front passing to the south, tied to a parent low and northwards moving trough bring another S’ly change Sun. We should see a window of light offshore winds for the early before the change (we’ll fine-tune timing on Fri) with clean, easing NE windswell to 2ft before the S’ly hits. Short range S swell in the a’noon perks up to 3-4ft at S facing beaches but under S-S/SE winds it’ll be hard to find a quality wave.

Next week (Dec9 onwards)

As stated on Mon, the following high moves quickly into the Tasman in the new week, moving NE and weakening. S swell from the frontal passage peaks Mon with size to 3-4 occ. 5ft sets across S facing beaches on offer. We should see light winds for the early, tending to light seabreezes in the a’noon so conditions should be clean or cleanish. 

Back to N’ly flow Tues with rapidly easing swells and small surf into Wed. 

There’s reasonable model agreement on a trough of low pressure forming in the Tasman mid next week, possibly deepening into a surface low near the South Island,  but poor run to run consistency so expect some major revisions. We may see a flush of S swell develop Thurs into Fri as winds on the SW flank of the trough generate S swell. We’ll pencil in 3-4ft for now and see how it looks Fri. Following that more weak, mobile high pressure suggests a rapid return to small NE windswells. We’ll revisit that scenario on Fri. 

Seeya then.