TC Alfred is in the Coral Sea, currently about a 1000km NE of Mackay and slow moving, expected to slowly track southwards from today. TC Rae has sped off SE to the graveyard and TC Seru is located between Vanuatu and Fiji and moving S/SE. In this complex brew, we’ll see multiple swell trains from the NE-E quadrant, although large swells are becoming increasingly unlikely as models firm on a coastal crossing for TC Alfred (still uncertainty over this track!) and the South Pacific cyclones track south-eastward, then eastwards as dissipating systems.
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/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/02/26/complex-brew-three-cyclones-the-map
freeride76
Wednesday, 26 February 2025
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/02/24/small-fun-summer-surf-two-cyclones-in
freeride76
Monday, 24 February 2025
A very long and broad tradewind fetch is anchored on a NW/SE axis by twin tropical cyclones. TC Alfred is meandering in the Coral Sea NE of Cairns, while TC Rae is NW of Fiji and moving south-south westwards.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/02/20/small-and-mediocre-short-term-fun-summer
freeride76
Friday, 21 February 2025
The monsoon trough is still active with a tropical low off the N.QLD coast and lows in the South Pacific through the Island chains. Medium term surf potential rests on these tropical lows, with the supporting tradewind belt supplying plenty of energy in the interim, focussed on the sub-tropics short term.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/02/19/small-mixed-bag-ahead-while-we-wait-the
freeride76
Wednesday, 19 February 2025
Following that, we’ll see a fallow period while we wait for the next round of Tradeswell to develop next week, possibly enhanced by tropical low pressure systems in the South Pacific and Coral Sea.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/02/17/plenty-great-waves-the-way
thermalben
Monday, 17 February 2025
To clarify further, I’m not revising my size estimates as such, it’s just that the fetch around the low - which should be pushing 50kts as we speak - is aimed away from the NSW coast so we’re looking at sideband energy glancing the coast later today and into Tuesday.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/02/14/pumping-waves-over-the-coming-week
thermalben
Friday, 14 February 2025
Looks like a great weekend of waves ahead. We’ve got stacks of swell for next week too.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/02/12/very-dynamic-outlook-quality-swells-the
freeride76
Wednesday, 12 February 2025
The low is slow moving as it slides to the SE of New Caledonia and looks to be reinforced by a second tropical low budding off the monsoon trough in North QLD waters. We’ll see continuing E’ly swells from this source, with a long lasting peak as the system intensifies as it drifts through the South Pacific slot over the weekend.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/02/10/tricky-short-term-outlook-increasing-e
freeride76
Monday, 10 February 2025
This low intensifies as it tracks slowly through the South Pacific slot between New Caledonia and the North Island, spraying the East coast with quality E swell.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/02/07/improved-outlook-next-week-swells
freeride76
Friday, 7 February 2025
New high pressure moves SE of Tasmania to start next week and compared to Wed’s notes it’s looking stronger and slower moving, which is good news for surf potential, especially medium term as it anchors low pressure drifting down from the tropics into the wide open South Pacific slot.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/02/05/fun-waves-the-tropics-continue-easing
freeride76
Wednesday, 5 February 2025
No great change to the outlook as a tradewind fetch anchored by tropical low pressure near New Caledonia remains active before the low slides off to the SE later tomorrow and into Fri. We’ll see continuing tradeswells from this source.
