Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Dec 2nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Small NE-E/NE swells Tues with freshening N’lies
• Similar surf Wed with a S’ly change and small S’ly windswell in the PM
• Small blend Thurs and Fri with winds swinging back N’ly on Fri
• Possible window of improving  NE windswell Sat as winds swing offshore
• S’ly change Sun with short range S’ly swells increasing PM
• Spike in S swell Mon next week
• Still looking at potential low pressure developments later next week- models all over the place so check in Wed for latest updates

Recap

The weekend ended up OK, with Sat seeing a small blend of E/NE and NE swells to 2ft with a kick in the a’noon, although quality was hampered by a freshening NE flow. Sun saw much lighter winds and fun, peaky surf from the E/NE-NE to 3ft. A clearing trough has seen sunshine and offshore winds this morning with fun-sized E/NE swells to 3ft offering up some quality on the beachies. A minor S swell signal seemed to add some energy (2ft) at S facing beaches. Winds are expected to shift NE and reach moderate paces by this a’noon. 

Sunshine, offshore and very inviting looking this morning

This week (Dec 2-6)

Stability and sunshine will be short-lived for temperate NSW, non-existent for the sub-tropics as another complex trough system moves towards the Eastern Seaboard. That will bring a shallow, troughy change mid-week before weak high pressure moves into the Tasman. No major swells this week, so we’ll be relying on a small trade-swell, which looks to ease off mid-week. A more vigorous S’ly change on the weekend should see a spike in S-SE windswell early next week before the pattern of small E swells resets. 

In the short run we’ll see the N’ly flow reset and re-strengthen tomorrow as the next trough approaches. Lighter NW-N winds early before winds kick up. There is a chance of a lighter period of winds from the NW-N/NW around lunch-time- worth a little squizz if you have flexibility. Surf-wise we’re looking at small E/NE swells filtering down from the tradewind fetch and winds in the Northern Tasman with size to 2ft with the occ. 3ft set. 

The trough looks to push into the Sydney basin around office hours so a dawny should see cleanish conditions under NW-W breezes. Once the S’ly kicks in it’ll be protected spots only. No great change to the surf regime with small E/NE swells to 2ft or so. A small amount of new S’ly windswell in the a’noon (2ft or so at best) will be for the super keen only.

Small and dribbly for the rest of the working week. High pressure moves quickly into the Tasman Thurs so winds will shift from the light S-S/SE to E/NE through the day with a minor E/NE swell signal hanging in there in the 1-2ft range and a weak S windswell quickly fading out. 

We’ll see similar sized surf for Fri with early NW-N breezes shifting N/NE and freshening during the day, whipping up some new NE windswell to 2ft or so. An uninspiring end to the working week, with a small grovel on offer for the keen.

This weekend (Dec7-8)

High pressure will be near the North Island by the weekend with a fairly robust N’ly flow adjacent to the NSW Coastline generating a workable signal of NE windswell in the 2 occ. 3ft range. Early NW winds offer semi-clean conditions before N’lies kick up. As a new trough approaches we may see winds shift NW-W/NW in the a’noon. Models differ on the timing of this change so we’ll flag it for now and see how it looks during the week. Potentially a window of improving NE windswell is on the cards once the wind swings more offshore.

A trough moves through the region early Sun morning, with a front passing through Bass Strait and into the Tasman during the same time frame. We’ll finesse the timing of the change during the week, there may be a window of clean, offshore conditions before winds shift fresh S’ly then S/SE’ly. Small NE windswells to start with a late kick in new short range S swell on the cards. Winds will blow out open beaches so keep expectations pegged very low. 

Next week (Dec9 onwards)

High pressure moves over Central NSW quickly in the new week, so SE winds look to moderate quickly through Mon, although some lump and bump would be expected. A mix of S swells should peak Mon in the 3-5ft range offering up a few options although nothing of any great quality is expected. 

By Tues, that swell will be on a rapid decline with a few small days ahead as high pressure moves NE and we see a return to a light/mod NE flow.

Some small NE windswell is a possibility during this period.

Further ahead and models are really struggling to resolve the troughiness in the Tasman Sea. GFS is suggesting a broad trough of low pressure in the Tasman which may see a modest increase in E’ly swells towards the end of next week. That model then favours a low forming in the Coral Sea into next weekend, possibly a compact, hybrid system off the QLD Coast (see below).

EC is favouring a low forming in the lower Tasman late next week, potentially forming a large low off the Gippsland coast and large swells for Tasmania and southern NSW.

We’ll take both of these outcomes with a grain of salt for now and see how they look on Wed. 

Seeya then.