Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Dec 6th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Small NE windswells developing Sat PM
• S’ly change in early Sun AM- brief window of offshore conditions more likely Central Coast and Hunter
• Small increase in short range S-SE swell Sun PM
• Small flush  in S swell Mon with easing winds
• A few days of tiny surf Tues-Thurs
• Minor S swell flush Fri
• Looking at potential low pressure developments later next week in the South Pacific-  check in Mon for latest updates

Recap

Small E’ly swells held a 2ft wave yesterday under light morning breezes which tended E/NE-NE in the a’noon. Similar sized surf this morning or even smaller with a light N’ly on it, expected to tend NE and freshen through the day.

Misty morn with small, wobbly waves

This weekend (Dec7-8)

No great change to the Sat f/cast. Light N’ly winds early with the morning land breeze effect minimised by cool water temperatures. Those winds will tend N-NE at moderate paces through the a’noon. There’ll be a small grovel on offer with minor E/NE swell and some NE windswell offering up a 2ft wave for the keen, with a small increase in NE windswell through the back half of the a’noon, topping out at 2-3ft.

We’ll see a trough bring a S-SE change on Sun. Looks like it will be in early with only a brief period of W/NW breezes on the Hunter/Central Coast with SW winds already in across the Sydney basin at dawn. S’lies then kick in very quickly after dawn across Sydney, extending northwards by early morning. Winds clock around SE-E/SE by lunchtime so a morning surf is the go. Small leftover NE windswells offer a chance of a clean or cleanish 2ft wave for the early. By close of play we’ll see a modest increase in short range S swell, up into the 2 occ. 3ft range but it will be messy and low quality.

Next week (Dec9 onwards)

We’re still looking at a peak in S swell Mon but the frontal passage responsible for it now looks more mobile and poorly aligned so wave heights get a haircut. Topping out at 2-3ft with the occ. 4ft set at the best S swell magnets. Early light S-SE breezes (SW inshore on the Northern Beaches) will tend light NE through the day as high pressure quickly moves NE into the Tasman, following the pattern of weak, mobile high-pressure. 

That's about it for swell for the week. Size dips down quickly into Tues, offering up a 2ft leftover at S facing beaches, if that. Winds tend N’ly, then N/NE at light/mod speeds. S facing beaches should have a surfable wave with tiny surf elsewhere. 

A trough of low pressure we mentioned on Wed, then forms off the South Coast, bringing a S’ly change Wed. Unfortunately the trough of low pressure remains weak and unformed and scoots away quickly, not generating much, if any in the way of useful swell. Expect tiny 1-2ft surf through Wed into Thurs, with another weak high pressure moving into the Tasman Thurs and winds clocking around E/NE-NE during the day.

A front passing into the Tasman late Wed/Thurs offers a minor increase in S swell Fri, at this stage only offering a 3ft wave at S facing beaches. We'll see how it looks Mon, best case is we get a minor upgrade on size. We must be due for an upgrade.

Back to N-NE winds next weekend and minor NE windswells, at best.

All very low energy stuff. 

Longer term and we’ll be watching the South Pacific Convergence Zone for signs of low pressure development near Fiji later next week, possibly even retrograding back towards the Australian continent- that does offer possibilities of a long range E swell as we move into the Xmas week.

Long way off and thus low confidence but in the absence of any other swell sources we’ll be hoping that as the current MJO moves off the maritime continent into the Pacific it can spark some low pressure development before the Xmas period begins.

More on that Mon, in the meantime, have a great weekend!