A cold front and long trough are bringing a S’ly change to the NSW coast, extending into the sub-tropics later today and overnight. There’s not a great deal of useful swell generating winds associated with the change so only modest short range S swells are expected to accompany it.
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The remnants of the weekends frontal systems have set up a fading off axis fetch near New Zealand with the current run of small S swells also on the way out. A weak mid week front will bring a wind change and a small flush of S swell but next week looks a bit more robust although with plenty of winds.
Minor tweaks to the weekend f/cast with the front and associated low just looking a little more organised and not so disjointed. It’s not going to add much materially to wave heights, we’re still looking at pulsey S swell to 3-4ft through Sat with a mid/late morning peak offering up some bigger 3-5ft surf at S facing beaches.
Easing swells are expected for the rest of the week.
We’ve got a weak, troughy pattern unfolding now adjacent to the NSW Coast in the near Tasman Sea that will provide plenty of wind changes this week. A low pressure system near the South Island reached maximum strength last night and is now slowly easing, but still looking good on ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes with S’ly strong winds to gales aimed up the Tasman pipe.
As mentioned on Wed the weekend’s front forms a low which looks to stall in the central/eastern Tasman Sun/Mon, and possibly linger near the South Island after that. The fetch now, isn’t quite so well aimed back at the East Coast but we’re still on track for a nice pulse of S-S/SE swell.
Improved outlook for next week as the weekends front stalls around a trough line in the central/eastern lower Tasman and forms a compact low, possibly even retrograding NW.
Another large high (1034hPa) is currently moving offshore from Southern NSW into the Tasman, with a long, NW-SE angled trough now moving offshore and towards the North Islands. The remnants of a low/front near the South Island are lingering near the South Island through the short term with the next frontal system expected late this week. No major swell sources on the radar so lets look at a few bits and pieces on offer this week.
Sat still looks the best day of the weekend as a trough and front terminating in a compact low approach from the W.
A massive high (1035 hPa) is currently moving over temperate NSW into the Tasman Sea, with a SE surge extending up the sub-tropical to tropical Eastern Seaboard, and a more N’ly flow south of Seal Rocks. In the wake of a strong front earlier this week we have still have moderate S swell trains propagating through the Tasman Sea which will be our main swell source through the short term.