Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 2nd Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Plenty of leftover S swell Thurs AM with light morning NW winds tending mod/fresh N’ly
• Workable S/SE swell Fri
• Small NE windswell building Thurs, extending through region on Fri with N’ly winds
• Small amounts of NE windswell extending into Sat morning
• Should see some E/NE tradewind swell filtering down from sub-tropics this weekend
• Troughy outlook next week small at least through the first half of the week
• Potential later next week/weekend as trough/low may form near North Island, check back Fri for updates

Recap

Still some remnant S’ly swell yesterday which kept surf in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches, clean early under offshore winds with conditions deteriorating through the a’noon as winds swung S-SE. S swell has kicked up overnight with S facing beaches seeing size in the 4-5ft range this morning, bigger by a notch on the Hunter. Quality is poor under a straight onshore flow, with the possibility of an improvement this a’noon at S facing beaches under a more variable, tending NE flow.

Chunky swell getting in but quality poor under onshore winds, should see an improvement for some spots through the day

This week (Aug2-Aug4)

A massive high (1035 hPa) is currently moving over temperate NSW into the Tasman Sea, with a SE surge extending up the sub-tropical to tropical Eastern Seaboard, and a more N’ly flow south of Seal Rocks. In the wake of a strong front earlier this week we have still have moderate S swell trains propagating through the Tasman Sea which will be our main swell source through the short term. The bifurcation between the sub-tropics and temperate regions increases through the end of the week with NE windswell in the temperate areas and E’ly tradewind swells building in the sub-tropics.

In the short run winds look good for S facing beaches tomorrow morning with a light NW flow expected. Plenty of leftover S swell to work with, although heights will have come down from today peaks. We should see a good spread of 3-4ft surf at S facing beaches wth a few bigger 5ft sets possible through the morning, more reliable on the Hunter. An easing trend will be in place from mid-morning with S swell dropping back to 2-3ft during the a’noon. Small amounts of NE windswell should see a few 1-2ft sidewinders running down the beach by close of play.

Remnants of yesterday’s front leave an off-axis fetch adjacent to the South Island today and that should put a floor under surf heights Fri with S/SE swell holding 2-3ft surf at S and SE facing beaches under a light/mod NW flow that will tend N’ly and freshen during the day. The N’ly fetch does extend up the coast Fri but windspeeds should cap surf heights in the 2-3ft range tops. 

This weekend (Aug 5-6)

A troughy area over the inland and extending up towards the North Coast with should see a slackening in N’ly winds Sat, possibly light NW tending to light N’ly or even E’ly breezes during the a’noon. A small mixed bag of 2-3ft NE windswell and remnants of S/SE swell should provide a few workable options in the morning if you aren’t too fussy. Easing back through the a’noon.

The trough now looks to bring a weak S’ly change Sun, with winds easing back to light SE in the a’noon. Not much surf expected with small amounts of E/NE swell filtering down from the top of the high in the sub-tropics and Northern Tasman. We may see some glancing S swell energy from activity well below Southern Australia and a weak front passing Tasmania  but very small, flukey and not showing away from a few S swell magnets. A few weak 2ft beachies will top it out. Mostly wind affected.

Next week (Aug 7 onwards)

Not a great deal of action the charts to start next week. A weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman, holding a light onshore SE flow across the region for Mon and Tues with a small blend of E/NE swells Mon and traces of long period S swell in the mix Tues. All told it looks like a continuation of weak 2ft surf at best. 

A little more potential from mid week. At least according to GFS model. That suggests one of the troughy areas deepening N and NW of the North Island in our wide open Eastern swell window. Early days but under that scenario we could be looking at a few good pulses of E swell late next week or next weekend more likely.

EC wants nothing to do with that, maintaining a weaker, troughy pattern with suggestions of a weak low in the Tasman late next week and a small round of S-SE swell into the weekend 12-13/8.

We’ll see how it shapes up on Fri. It’s a pattern change after El Niño dominated synoptic set-ups to see a more troughy looking Tasman Sea - lets hope it leads to some swell from the Eastern quadrant before Spring is sprung.

Seeya Friday.