Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 14th Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Workable S swells to start the week with tricky variable winds as trough hovers around Sydney
• Nice pulse of S-S/SE swell Tues with S’ly winds
• Still plenty of S/SE swell Wed with offshore winds tending N/NE in the a’noon
• Size easing Thurs with increasing N’lies tending NW’ly- possible small NE windswell in the a'noon
• Fresh W’lies Fri with a small mixed bag of NE windswell and leftover S swell
• Modest increase in S swell Sat PM
• Stronger S swell Sun with lingering S’lies
• Easing S swell Mon next week with light winds
• Small flukey S swells expected from mid next week

Recap

A few fun waves over the weekend via some workable S swell. Sat saw surf in the 2ft range at S facing beaches, bigger 2-3ft on the Central Coast and Hunter with mostly clean conditions under an offshore flow. Similar surf Sun morning with clean conditions before S’ly winds kicked in with a modest S swell bump in the a’noon. Today has seen workable S swell to 3ft at S exposed breaks, bigger 4ft at better S swell magnets and the Hunter. Conditions were a bit wobbly early under a variable flow around a trough, cleaning up through the morning. S/SE winds are expected through the a’noon.

Glassy ones on offer this morning under grey skies

This week (Aug 14-18)

We’ve got a weak, troughy pattern unfolding now adjacent to the NSW Coast in the near Tasman Sea that will provide plenty of wind changes this week. A low pressure system near the South Island reached maximum strength last night and is now slowly easing, but still looking good on ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes with S’ly strong winds to gales aimed up the Tasman pipe. That will be our main source of swell this week. A frontal system forming in the Tasman Fri into the weekend now looks much more of standard system compared to Fri but will still produce a chunky S swell later on the weekend. Read on for details.

Low pressure system holding nice structure in the Central/Eastern Tasman

In the short run and we’ll see high pressure track NE into the NSW interior with a weak ridge up along the coast bringing a S’ly flow, likely tending SE and rapidly easing in the a’noon as high pressure moves over the coast and pressure gradients slacken. Those winds will add a bit of ruffle and bump to a peak in S swell unfortunately. Size is expected in the 4ft range, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter but you may have to sacrifice some size to find clean options.

Surf will be smaller Wed, with S/SE swell down to 3ft, the odd 4ft set around at S facing beaches and a slow easing trend through the day. Offsetting that will be improved winds. Weak pressure gradients should see widespread land breezes (offshores) extend through the morning before winds shift around N-N/NE and freshen through the a’noon.

A trough and front approach on Thurs with winds tending NW, possibly W/NW by lunch-time and freshening. Clean leftovers from the S/SE will supply a few fun waves in the 2-3ft range easing back further during the day. We should see some small NE windswell in the water as well, likely in the 1-2ft range.

Small leftovers Fri to end the working week but groomed by mod offshore winds as the front steams into the Tasman. Expect a few clean 2ft waves at S facing beaches, with the Hunter and other select swell magnets picking up traces of longer period swell from frontal activity below the continent. Small amounts of NE windswell from retreating N’ly winds in the Tasman should provide a few small sidewinders in the 1-2ft range.

This weekend (Aug 19-20)

Moderate strength cold front pushing NE into the Tasman Sat should see a mod/fresh W’ly flow tend W/SW then SW-S through the a’noon (see below). Small leftovers to 2ft through the morning are expected. By the a’noon a late surge in new S swell is expected from the proximate fetch to the NSW South/Central Coast. That should see a raw and raggedy increase to 3-4ft at S facing beaches which will be heavily wind affected.

Cold front brings SW winds and S swell this weekend

A secondary front Sun maintains a mod/fresh SW flow with winds expected to drop out in the a’noon as pressure gradients rapidly ease. Strong but raw S swell to 3-5ft, bigger 4-6ft on the Hunter is expected to peak in the morning but you’ll have to sacrifice size to find cleaner conditions apart from a few spots north of the Harbour. We may see a late shift to NE winds in the a’noon, possibly opening up some S facing beaches after lunch.

Next week (Aug 21 onwards)

Compared to Fridays notes where the front was expected to spawn a major low in the Tasman, it now looks like the front will quickly move away, with high pressure moving off the Central NSW Coast early next week.

That should see easing but clean S swell to 3ft or so and light winds tending NE in the a’noon.

Surf then eases further into Tues with NE winds establishing.

Swell sources look sketchy through next week.

We may see some small NE windswell develop mid week although nothing major as high pressure looks weak.

Frontal activity well to the south of the continent supplies traces of long period S swell wrap but we’re looking at marginal and flukey swells, possibly supplying some 2-3ft sets to the Hunter and reliable S swell magnets Thurs/Fri. Most beaches look to be tiny from mid week.

Hopefully we’ll see one more major swell before this Winter ends.

Check back Wed for the latest.