Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 7th Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Should see some small E/NE tradewind swell filtering down from sub-tropics through Mon/Tues
• Small S-S/SE  swell Mon PM, Tues AM with better winds Tues
• Small clean beachies Wed-Fri AM
• Minor S swell Fri PM/Sat AM
• Stronger S swell Sun with tricky winds (light S’ly)
• Easing swells early next week
• Possible E/SE swell Thurs next week- check back Wed for updates

Recap

Sat was the pick of the weekend with a fun mixed bag of NE and S swells to 2ft (3ft on the Hunter) and clean conditions under light NW-W winds. Winds shifted more S’ly into Sun blowing out most S facing beaches. There were some cleaner, smaller options at protected spots with a mix of S swells on offer and some small E/NE swell filtering down from a tradewind fetch in the Coral Sea. A few clean 2-3ft options this morning although S facing beaches still have some leftover bump and lump from S’ly winds. A small increase in S swell is expected this a’noon but winds will be poor for S facing beaches. Nothing amazing but there is  a wave there to start the working week.

Clean, and straight on the low tide

This week (Aug 7-11)

Another large high (1034hPa) is currently moving offshore from Southern NSW into the Tasman, with a long, NW-SE angled trough now moving offshore and towards the North Islands. The remnants of a low/front near the South Island are lingering near the South Island through the short term with the next frontal system expected late this week. A persistent tradewind fetch is in the process of resetting with a less favourable wind alignment. No major swell sources on the radar so lets look at a few bits and pieces on offer this week.

In the short run the high moving offshore develops a weak ridge up the NSW Coast with light SW flow tending to light S/SE breezes tomorrow. Todays pulse should hold into tomorrow morning with some 3ft sets at S facing beaches, likely still wind affected at most S exposed breaks. E/NE tradewind swell looks to supply some 2ft surf with the occasional bigger set.  Surfable options will be on offer if you can compromise some size.

Winds drop out Wed as the high quickly moves NE. Light land breezes will tend to a mod N’ly flow off the back of the high. Small mixed bag of easing E/NE swell and S swell remnants will see some clean 2ft surf on the beachies, best early on the morning offshore breeze. 

Similar small mixed bag Thurs, down a notch though with all swell sources easing. Expect some clean 1-2ft surf on the beachies. NW winds early tend W’ly as a front approaches and passes through Bass Strait and Southern NSW. That’ll offer groomed conditions although the offshore flow might be a bit stiff on the Illawarra. 

The front looks pretty weak and mobile as it it passes into the Tasman Fri. It’ll bring SW winds, tending S’ly in the a’noon and a small boost in S swell. Not much size or strength in it- up to 2ft or so at S facing beaches. Very marginal increase South of Sydney. We’ll see how it looks on Wed but for now, it’s looking like a dud.

This weekend (Aug 12-13)

Another front following closely behind Fridays front bring another W’ly burst Sat, likely tending S’ly or variable in the a’noon. Small leftovers from Fri should hold some clean 2ft sets on Sat morning. 

A much stronger parent low and trailing fetch passing south of Tasmania early Sat should see stronger S swell fill in on Sun. A mix of mid period S and some longer period S swell look to build surf into the 3ft range during Sun. We’ll finesse size and timing during the week but it’s worth penciling in. Winds may be a bit funky as a high moves over Tasmania and sets up a weak ridge but pressure gradients look slack so we’ll keep reasonable expectations for a morning land breeze and just light breezes through the day.

Next week (Aug 14 onwards)

Nothing major on the radar next week. The remnants of the weekends front/low look to linger near the South Island so we should see some small S swell persist into Mon at least, possibly Tues. An easing trend looks to be the most likely outcome though.

Both major models are still struggling to resolve troughiness in the Tasman. We may see a Cook Strait fetch develop Tues/Wed (see below) with potential for a small E/SE swell Thurs. 

EC is interested in a weak low in the Central Tasman during the same time frame that may be good for some small SE-E/SE swell. Nothing worth getting frothed up about.

We’ll keep tabs on it and come back Wed and see how it’s shaping up.