Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 11th Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Minor S swell Fri 
• Small leftover S swell Sat with offshore winds
• Anther SW-S frontal system Sun with minor S swell building PM
• Workable S swells to start the week with tricky winds as trough forms around Sydney
• Nice pulse of S-S/SE swell Tues with S’ly winds
• Still plenty of S/SE swell Wed with offshore winds
• Size easing Thurs with increasing N’lies
• Dynamic outlook for late next week as strong front/trough may form gale force low in Tasman with potential for sizey S swell next weekend
• Check Mon for latest update

Recap

Small mixed bag yesterday saw some fun beachies in the 2ft range with S’ly component swells adding an extra foot to the Hunter. Clean conditions early under offshore winds, which tended N’ly before a front brought a W’ly change. Overnight winds have tended W-W/SW and we’ve got a small new S swell in the water today with size around 2-3ft at S facing beaches, a notch bigger on the Central Coast and Hunter. A fun enough way to end a working week where the small mixed swells have provided surfable options every day.

Some rough and ready new S swell on the Hunter

This weekend (Aug 12-13)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Sat still look the pick of the litter with todays modest S swell carrying over into tomorrow morning and light offshore winds expected under a weak, troughy environment. Those winds should tend W’ly through most of the morning with a period of light/variable SE/NE breezes likely in the a’noon before a late, light SW change pushes through. No major size on offer but there’ll be workable 2ft surf at S facing beaches through the morning-2-3ft on the Central Coast and Hunter- likely easing back during the a’noon.

By Sun the front and a new high pressure ridge will be directing S’ly quarter winds up the NSW temperate coast. We’ll see a brief spell of SW winds (W/SW-W north of the Harbour) before mod S’lies establish. There’ll be some wind affected 2ft surf on offer early, or tiny at protected locations with a modest kick in short range S swell through the a’noon. Not exceeding 2-3ft and only for the keen under S’ly winds.

Next week (Aug 14 onwards)

Very tricky wind outlook for next week as a series of troughs linger about the NSW Coast with rapid wind changes on the cards. Keep tabs on local winds because they are likely to be flukey and changeable.

Monday will be a case in point.

We should see a lingering S’ly flow to start but a trough line near Sydney may see variable winds or developing NW-NE breezes through the day. Winds should be relatively light at any rate and there’ll be some small S swell to work with- up into the 3ft range as S swell form the front and some longer period swell trains make landfall.

S’ly winds look o re-establish Tues as the trough moves into the Tasman and high pressure approaches Tasmania, building a ridge up the coast.

As mentioned on Wed the weekend’s front forms a low which looks to stall in the central/eastern Tasman Sun/Mon, and possibly linger near the South Island after that. The fetch now isn’t quite so consolidated and well aimed back at the East Coast but we’re still on track for a nice pulse of S-S/SE swell. Expect size to build into the 3-4ft range Tues, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter. Winds will be a problem Tues with smaller surf at more protected spots. We could easily see a little upgrade if the fetch rotates and slingshots up around the stalled low-check back Mon for a final revision.

Winds should improve Wed as high pressure moves NE over the region. Expect W-W/NW winds, tending to NE breezes in the a’noon. Size should hold in the 3-4ft range Wed morning, easing during the day. 

A last pulse looks likely Thurs with morning size in the 3-4ft range likely to ease later in the day with N’ly winds, W-NW early. Possibly generating some NE windswell later Thurs into Fri as N'ly winds freshen adjacent to the NSW coast.

We’ll see a dynamic looking pattern later next week. An approaching front links up with an inland trough generating strong W’ly winds.  The system may form a deep low with gales in the Tasman next weekend. There’s still a lot of model divergence to get through so we’ll see revisions on Mon but under current modelling there is broad agreement on a major system in the lower Tasman, possibly tracking NE next weekend. This would suggest a solid S swell event late next weekend and early week 21/8.

Been a while since a solid S swell so we’ll keep fingers crossed and see how it looks when we come back Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!