Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 9th Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small clean beachies Wed-Thurs AM
• Cold front brings W/SW-SW winds Thurs PM
• Minor S swell Fri 
• Small leftover S swell Sat with offshore winds
• Anther SW-S frontal system Sun with minor S swell building PM
• Small S swells to start the week
• Good potential for S/SE swell next week, possibly Tue, more likely Wed
• Very tricky wind outlook as trough moves offshore- check back Fri

Recap

A pretty fun mixed bag to start the week with E/NE swell filtering down from the tropics and S quadrant swell supplying 2-3ft surf yesterday (bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter). Conditions were clean early under an offshore flow before S’ly winds made a mess of it away from protected locations. Still some reasonably fun options today on an easing trend with clean 2ft+ surf, bigger on the Hunter. Morning offshore breezes will tend N’ly through the day and freshen.

Fun, wedgey options on the Hunter

This week (Aug 9-11)

High pressure (1031hPa) is slowly but surely moving into the Tasman in a NE direction, developing a N’ly flow extending from temperate NSW up into the sub-tropics through today and tomorrow. The remnants of a low/front are lingering near the South Island and holding some small, easing S/SE swell. The N’ly flow will be punctuated tomorrow by a cold front which brings W -SW’ly winds to the region and a small amount of S swell. A stronger frontal system now looks likely to be a bit delayed but stall nicely in the Eastern Tasman early next week and supply some useful S/SE swell.

In the short run we’ll see the small mixed bag of S/SE and E/NE dwindling to a few 2ft sets but mostly 1-2ft and clean on the beachies under NW winds that will shift W then W/SW by close of play (earlier on the Illawarra).

SW winds then freshen o/night as the front pushes NE into the Tasman with a mod/fresh SW flow for Fri (more W-W/SW north of the Harbour). Winds should ease back quickly in the a’noon as the front weakens and moves rapidly offshore. A modest amount of S short range S swell should see surf build int o the 2-3ft range, bigger 4ft on the Hunter. It’ll be low quality stuff though and smaller in protected locations. Possibly some semi-clean options in the a’noon as the wind drops out if you aren’t too fussy.

This weekend (Aug 12-13)

Friday’s modest S swell will be on the way out Sat but conditions will be groomed by offshore winds. A few 2ft sets at S facing beaches through the morning, bigger on the Hunter with an easing trend through the a’noon. 

Another front Sunday will push SW-S winds up the South/Central NSW Coasts so you’ll need to get in early for a brief window of W’ly winds before the change. Not much surf to get up for though- just a small blend of S swells to 1-2ft tops. The front will bring another small increase in short range S swell but barely worth working around with mod/fresh S’ly winds.

Next week (Aug 14 onwards)

Improved outlook for next week as the weekends front stalls around a trough line in the central/eastern lower Tasman and forms a compact low, possibly even retrograding NW (see below) Under current modelling that suggests a nice pulse of S/SE swell, either later Tues or Wed.

We’ll see small S swell Mon with a lingering S’ly flow shifting N’ly by the a’noon as a trough approaches from the West. 

Winds then look really tricky Tues as a trough potentially moves offshore with winds NW north of the trough and SW-S south of the trough. We’ll finesse winds on Fri. We may see S/SE swell build Tues a’noon into the 3-4ft range, holding in the 4ft range Wed before easing. Again, timing will need to be revised on Fri once we resolve model differences.

If winds behave we should see some really fun waves mid next week.

Longer term and the troughy pattern may be resolved later next week by an approaching low/front which looks to bring typically strong W’ly winds for August.

Check back Fri for the latest.