This week is looking much more like a classic spring pattern. The ingredients are weak, mobile high pressure at sub-tropical latitudes and a series of troughs and weaker fronts tied a complex area of low pressure in the Southern Tasman and near Southern Ocean.
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A trough and inland low located over Victoria is now in the process of moving offshore, shunting the N’ly winds further East and bringing a regime of more variable, tending W’ly winds.
The fetch remains active over the weekend, although slightly weaker compared to earlier model runs. Compensating for lower windspeeds will be a broad coverage of wind from the Northern Tasman, up into the Southern Coral Sea.
This will see a regime of northerly winds adjacent to the coast and an unstable atmosphere on the coast and inland. NE to N winds feeding into the trough will see swell from that direction become dominant with a peak in size expected mid-week.
Another long period S swell pulse is expected in tomorrow morning, albeit a notch smaller than today, but you’ll have to get your skates on before the S’ly change hits.
Below the continent, a very active Southern storm track is continuing to generate large seas with a few pulses of long period swell expected from this source.
A strong SW change is making it’s way up the coast as we speak but the coast-hugging low and subsequent over-sized S swell disappeared from model runs over the weekend. Models have swung back to the original EC resolution which sees a rapid-fire, coast-hugging fetch of strong to gale force SW to S winds through tomorrow..
We’re now on the tail end of the swell from this week's Tasman low, with a fun, little sting in the end of the tail expected and some tricky, but largely favourable wind shifts expected this weekend.
The broad supporting fetch of SSE/SE winds is better aimed at the East Coast but not especially strong and the system is quite mobile, drifting away through today and briefly flaring up tomorrow as it moves over New Zealand overnight Thursday.
This low and a slow moving high pressure cell- now drifting across the Bight and expected to track over Tasmania mid-week will hold a pattern of S’ly winds and developing SE swell through the week.