Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct4 )

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small pulse in S swell Tues PM , with a stronger spike Wed. Offshore winds AM, tending NE PM
• Another spike in S swell Fri, easing into Sat
• Possible small NE windswell Sun
• More surf potential next week, with unstable troughy pattern possibly leading to low in the Tasman, check back Wed for details

Recap

Lots of good to great surf on offer this weekend as an offshore trough slowly moved away, with quality surf from the E to ENE lighting up the region under generally light offshore winds. Saturday saw lots of clean 3ft surf, with a boost in size and quality on offer for Sunday, particularly on the Illawarra coastline. Some E facing beaches in that region offering up premium quality 3-4ft surf. 

Today has seen further quality surf, albeit smaller than f/cast, with winds tending W'ly and some shapely 3ft peaks on offer across the region.

This week(Oct 4-8)

This week is looking much more like a classic spring pattern. The ingredients are weak, mobile high pressure at sub-tropical latitudes and a series of troughs and weaker fronts tied to a complex area of low pressure in the Southern Tasman and near Southern Ocean. This is expected to  bring rapid shifts in wind and some modest spikes in S swell through the week. 

First cab off the rank as far as troughs and following fronts goes is expected to enter the Tasman sea today, with winds swinging W’ly in the wake of the change. 

We’re currently on the downslope of the current ENE swell and that easing trend continues through tomorrow morning and into the a’noon, with some clean 2ft leftovers on offer, brushed clean by W’ly winds.

The next front pushing out of Bass Strait tomorrow is expected to see a slight, late kick in S swell but keep expectations pegged low. We’re only look at S facing beaches kicking up into the 2-3ft range late in the day.

Wednesday is a much better bet for S swell, with a much more solid spike expected, generated by overnight SW gales pushing NE into the Tasman, forming a small surface low east of the Gippsland coast early Wed morning. That pushes a pretty solid wind-field into the central Tasman early Wed and surf heights are expected to rise accordingly.

We should see surf build into the 3-4ft range Wed, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter. There’ll be a mix of swell trains in the water, with the most solid pulse expected mid-morning. Mod/fresh W to SW winds quickly lay down and tend to light/mod E’ly breezes as a high pressure system slips over NSW and into the Tasman, bringing NE winds by close of play.

Residual swell from this source keeps fun waves on offer Thurs, with 3ft sets on offer at S facing beaches, smaller elsewhere, and easing back during the day. Likely some 3-4ft surf early on the Hunter. Another day of rapid wind switching is expected with early NW to N winds, likely tending NW after lunch before a strong cold front brings a fresh W to WSW wind regime.

The end of the working week brings another spike in S swell. This one generated by a front sweeping across Tasmania Thursday, bringing gales out of Bass Strait and a tight fetch of SW/SSW winds adjacent to Tasmania as it pushes up into the Tasman. There is some model divergence on the strength of this fetch. EC has higher windspeeds than the GFS resolution but both models whisk away the small surface low expected to form in the wake of the front so we can be pretty confident the swell will be a short-lived spike. 

It’s basically a rinse and repeat of Wednesdays pulse, but a notch smaller, under current modelling. Expect surf to build into the 3ft range across most S facing beaches, bigger 4ft on the Hunter, through Fri morning. Winds start WSW to SW, shift S, then as a small high cell migrates into the Tasman, shift NE again. Dizzying wind changes, but if you can time the changes some fun surf is on offer.

This weekend (Oct 9-10)

No major swell sources expected this weekend, with residual S swell expected to provide a few, fun small waves on the mop up from Friday’s swell during Saturday. 

Early winds look good, with a NW flow before winds tend to the NE as the weak high drifts east in the Tasman.

Sunday looks small and insipid at this stage. With high pressure in the Tasman at sub-tropical latitudes our best bet for surf is for a small NE windswell. Models aren’t showing a great deal of interest at this stage but there well positioned N’ly flow adjacent to the NSW Central Coast, which is likely to see a small 2ft wave through the day from the NE. We’ll finesse that call through the week as we see how the synoptics play out.

Next week (Oct 11) and beyond

The unstable, troughy pattern is giving weather models real headaches, so expect revision on any of these calls. 

EC pushes a strong front into the Tasman later Sunday, suggesting another spike of S swell, quite sizeable , through Mon into Tuesday.

A trough offshore then acts as a focal point for another round of NE/ENE infeed, suggesting swell from that direction.

GFS has an alternate scenario of a front and low passing well to the south on Sun/Mon, providing a small S pulse possible late Tues into Wed. It then suggests a low forming in a trough line off the Mid North Coast overnight Mon into Tues, with a surface low then drifting in the Tasman sea next week. This obviously has some juicier surf potential for mid next week onwards.

With such divergence it’s probably a wiser move to cool our jets before we rush into any big calls. An active troughy pattern continues and surf is likely from it into next week.

Check back Wed for a full and fresh analysis.