Tuesday is where model divergence becomes apparent. A SE/NW angled trough in the Tasman is likely to deepen on Tuesday 14/9, possibly forming a surface low. GFS model has this low forming off the Central NSW coast, EC forms a low much further north in the Tasman, close to Norfolk Island, with a very different surf outlook from Tuesday onwards.
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/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2021/09/10/good-potential-midend-next-week-low-in
freeride76
Friday, 10 September 2021
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2021/09/08/one-more-pulse-s-swell-then-smaller-surf
freeride76
Wednesday, 8 September 2021
Not much change expected from Mon’s f/cast notes apart from the timing on the expected long period S pulse over the next 24hrs. ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes showed plenty of storm force winds associated with the deep low as it transited the Tasman overnight and into this morning.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2021/09/06/lots-surf-week-improving-conditions
freeride76
Monday, 6 September 2021
This swell will be generated by a deep low centred around 50S which is expected to track south of Tasmania, with a slight NE wobble as it transits the Tasman on Tuesday. This is a powerful storm, with storm force winds and a large area of seas in excess of 30ft, and as a result swell periods will be in excess of 15s which will produce some real bathymetric focussing effects on deepwater reefs through Wed PM as swell trains get tripped up.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2021/09/03/lots-surf-next-week-some-it-large
freeride76
Friday, 3 September 2021
By Mon morning the Tasman sea will be inflamed with severe gale to potentially storm force winds, as a robust low and reinforcing cold front push into the lower Tasman.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2021/09/01/dynamic-outlook-ahead-swells-wide-range
freeride76
Wednesday, 1 September 2021
Spring starts with pattern change and an unstable, dynamic synoptic outlook with several swell sources incoming.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2021/08/30/easing-surf-very-active-period-mid-week
freeride76
Monday, 30 August 2021
The surf will continue to fade into the middle of the week ahead of building surf from the east-northeast on the weekend and more so next week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2021/08/27/surf-tasman-low-keeps-coming-active
freeride76
Friday, 27 August 2021
Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show our Tasman low in a great place, slowly drifting E of Tasmania towards New Zealand, maintaining a nice pressure gradient squeeze with a high pressure cell SE of Tasmania. As expected, the low has filled in a bit, with a corresponding lessening of windspeeds, mostly low end gales, compared to the storm force winds of it’s “bombing” phase.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2021/08/25/slow-moving-tasman-low-keeps-surf
freeride76
Wednesday, 25 August 2021
The Tasman low finally moves into better position later Thurs into Fri, weakening as it does so. The weekend still looks great though, just smaller due to the declining windspeeds on the SW flank of the low, compared to Monday’s notes.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2021/08/23/storm-force-tasman-low-dominates-weather
freeride76
Monday, 23 August 2021
The weekend's extremely warm, benign weather is about to be swept away by a wintry blast as a trough following the passage of a cold front later today interacts with a cold pool and forms an explosive surface low Tuesday morning.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2021/08/20/tasman-low-brings-extended-event-solid
freeride76
Friday, 20 August 2021
Not much joy for the weekend but we'll see the surf ramp up rapidly through next week as a Tasman Low develops right off the southern NSW coast.
