Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 10th March)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell Sat, with NE windswell and NE winds, cleanest early
• S’ly change Sun with small leftovers from S and NE and a modest late building trend in SE and E/NE swells
• Trough of low pressure in the Tasman next week sees fun sized SE-E swells Mon-Thurs with winds improving from Wed
• S’ly groundswell pulse Mon/Tues
• More S swell ahead and possible action from the tropics- stay tuned for updates

Recap

Mix of S and persistent E-E/NE swells yesterday supplied some fun 2-3ft surf across the region, with the Hunter a notch bigger. Conditions were clean early under light land breezes before E-E/NE winds kicked in and blew it out. Today has seen an inconsistent E/NE swell component to 2ft+ with a slight kick in S swell with most beaches around 2ft+ (S facing 3ft) and the Hunter seeing some bigger 3-4ft surf. Light winds were variable across the region with land breezes and E/NE winds randomly distributed as high pressure slips out across temperate NSW. Freshening NE winds are on the menu for the a’noon.

The Hunter had the most size but onshore winds hampered quality

This weekend (Mar 11-12)

Not much change for the weekend f/cast- freshening NE winds overnight Fri leave a NE windswell for Sat morning in the 2ft range for most spots. Cleanest early under NW winds before nor-easters kick in again through the day. There’ll be some small easing S swell in the mix to 2ft at S facing beaches early. The proximate NE fetch does get shunted away by an approaching trough so we’ll likely see a softening later in the day. A late S’ly change may hit the Illawarra just before dark- likely after dark across Sydney and northwards.

Sunday will see S’lies entrenched with an early period of W-SW winds more likely across the Hunter and Central Coast. Don’t expect that to last long though before mod S’lies kick in, tending SE as a small trough of low pressure forms off the Hunter. Anther day of a small mixed bag with some longer period but small S swell, and small E/NE swell generated by winds feeding into the trough of low pressure from the Northern Tasman. That’ll see some 2-3ft sets a S facing beaches which will be wind affected and a modest building trend late in E/NE swell and local SE windswell. Topping out at 2-3ft, smaller in more protected bays. Nothing amazing but a surf if you are keen.

Next week (Mar13 onwards)

We’ve got reasonable model agreement now on the trough of low pressure in the Tasman early next week. A broad area of low pressure  drifts NE to be close to Lord Howe Island on Mon, with ESE-E winds on the southern flank of the low pressure area. That system does look to persist in the Tasman at least until the middle of next week, generating fun sized SE-E swells. It's not a tremendously tight squeeze between the low and a high drifting E of Tasmania but it will be persistent enough to generate fun surf, although favouring sub-tropical regions for most size.

Expect building SSE-SE swell Mon with winds from the same direction. Size in the 3ft range will be augmented by longer period S swell from a final frontal slingshot belt Tasmania Fri/Sat (see above). That will be hard to detect in the prevailing sea state.

Winds moderate Tues and tend to lighter E’ly breezes- possibly SW inshore early north of the Harbour. Swell from the low tends by degrees to the E/SE as the system slowly contracts to the NE. Along with continuing longer period S swell there’ll be at least 3ft of mixed S and ESE swell in the water, bigger on the Hunter. Quality will be the issue with the onshore flow. 

Pressure gradients should ease enough Wed AM for a morning offshore flow- likely W-NW across most of the region before light NE breezes kick in. Continuing ESE-E swell in the 3ft range along with small leftover S swells should see fun options across the beachbreaks with more seasonal winds supplying clean morning conditions.

Thursday looks similar with a stronger N’ly pattern establishing. Fun waves at Northern Corners with some wind protection.

By the end of next week we’ll be in an easing pattern as the low dissipates. Leftovers are on offer Fri with NE windswell a possibility in the a’noon.

Longer term and Sat looks small while a frontal progression looks to bring S swell into Sun. Certain model runs show this progression to be significant so we may be in for a run of S swell pulses from next Sun.

We’ll also keep eyes on a potential low pressure system retrograding into the Coral Sea/Northern Tasman later next week- which would be a source of quality E swell early the following week 20/3.

Check back Mon and we’ll see how those potential swell sources are shaping up. 

Until then, have a great weekend!