Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 20th March)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fresh S’lies Mon, tending SE Tues with a mix of S-SSE swells
• Better quality SSE swell Wed, fading Thurs
• Freshening NE winds Wed as an inland trough approaches with a mix of NE and E/NE swells Thurs
• Variable/N’ly winds Thurs- may tend NW in the a’noon
• S swell on the menu later next weekend
• Flukey SSE groundswell a possibility later next week
• Tracking an active tropics but nothing major for temperate NSW at this stage- check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Not much size over the weekend with Sat seeing a small mostly S swell dominated surf in the 2ft range, 2-3ft on the Hunter with light winds. Sunday was a foot smaller as S swell faded out of the mix with freshening N-NE winds. Today is seeing fresh S'lies with onshore conditions and small S swell which is now on the build across the region. S swell is expected to be dominant this week, details below.

Very uninspiring start to the week- more swell to come with tricky winds

This week (Mar 20-24)

A trough in advance of a strong high pressure cell and deeper Southern parent low is bringing a fresh S’ly flow to temperate NSW, with a Summer style tradewind flow in the Coral Sea and South Pacific delivering a small payload of E’ly quadrant swell. Compared to Fridays notes the front/low in the Southern Tasman is a stronger system while the tradewind pattern is weaker and more disjointed. That will see S quadrant swells dominate through most of the week through temperate NSW, with a smaller tradewind swell signal north of Coffs Harbour. 

In the short run, todays fresh S’lies will tend SE through tomorrow as a strong high (1033 hPa) drifts E of Tasmania and maintains a ridge along the East Coast. SE winds tending E’ly in the a’noon will keep quality very low but if you can stomach the onshore winds there’ll be a good chunk of S-SSE swell in the water, with sets to 3-4ft at S facing beaches.

Winds shift NE through Wed as the high drifts E/NE into the Central Tasman and weakens. Light N’lies early tend NNE-NE and freshen through the day but better quality SSE swell from a slingshot of the fetch as it nears NZ (see below) offers up opportunities at S facing beaches with sets to 3ft+ (4ft at some of the more reliable S swell magnets). 

NE winds infeeding into a small trough of low pressure expected to sit off the Far South or Gippsland Coast Wed/Thurs should see a small signal of NE windswell through Thurs in the 2-3ft range at well oriented breaks with a N’ly flow that may tend lighter or even NW through the a’noon as an arm of the trough reaches into the Sydney region. We’ll fine-tune winds on Wed. Small, residual amounts of SSE swell should hold some 2ft sets through Thurs.

Not much to end the working week- early offshore W-NW winds tend S’ly through the early morning as the trough pushes through, without much strength before tending to light/mod S-SE winds. Only small leftovers from the SSE and NE are on the radar- 1-2ft at best at swell magnets which will quickly tend onshore in the S’ly. 

This weekend (Mar 25-26)

Not a great deal of action expected this weekend. A weaker high pressure cell moves NE of Tasmania bringing a light/mod SE-E flow Sat with good odds for a morning land breeze, similar winds Sun with breezes clocking around more E-E/NE in the a’noon.

A small blend of swells of Sat consisting of a weak signal of E/NE swell filtering down from the tropics , small leftover S-SSE swell and some traces of long period S swell wrapping in from a very strong zonal fetch well below Tasmania will supply about 2ft of surf, 2-3ft at the more reliable S swell magnets.

Sun looks just a half notch smaller with a possibility of 2ft+ sets from the flukey long period S swell source. Light winds will make it worthwhile hunting around to maximise what little size is on offer.

Next week (Mar 27 onwards)

The high cell moving into the Central Tasman will see winds tend E through Mon next week then E/NE to NE likely by Tues. 

A slight intensification and NE wobble of the parent low and zonal fetch under Australia should see stronger S swell which we may see as early as Sun evening but Mon looks a safer bet with sets to 2-3ft at S facing beaches (4ft at some more reliable magnets) and light winds. Monday is definitely worthy of some attention if you have flexibility in the program.

Easing swells then expected Tues into Wed with light onshore winds and small amounts of E/NE swell filtering down from the tradewind belt.

We’ll track a flukey fetch which may set up off the Eastern ice shelf early next week with potential for a long range SSE swell possibly Thurs next week. These fetches do tend to over-achieve for temperate NSW so check back Wed and we’ll see how its shaping up. 

Otherwise, the tradewind belt and associated low pressure areas in the South Pacific Convergence Zone are still looking lacklustre- supplying a small amount of fun-sized surf for the subtropics, fading down to a small, background signal by the time it gets south of Seal Rocks. We’ll keep tabs on it, but for now, it’s remains a bit of a disappointment. Promising , but failing to deliver.

Check back Wed for the latest.