Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 27th March)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Traces of long period S swell Sun/ bigger Mon
• Variable-NW-W winds Tues/Wed
• Small mixed bag Tues with a slight kick in S swell late (Wed a better bet)
• Inconsistent S swell Wed with NE windswell developing in the a’noon
• Flukey SSE groundswell
• S’ly winds this weekend with small S swells, a notch bigger Sun
• Onshore winds developing Mon next week, extending into mid week
• Possible low developing in Tasman later next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Not a great deal of size or quality over the weekend with both days seeing small, onshore surf in the 2ft range with the odd bigger set. S exposed coastlines like the Hunter did see some bigger 3ft sets Sun a’noon as longer period S swell filled in.  We’ve got a little more size today, with short range E swell and some longer period sets from the S, with S facing beaches in the 2-3ft range, bigger 3ft+ own the Hunter. Quality is OK under a light NW-NNW flow and drizzly conditions. We’ve got more clarity about the week ahead now, read on for details.

Small mixed bag this morning under drizzly skies

This week (Mar 27-31)

Models have chopped and changed over the weekend as we expected with the troughy pattern on offer but we’ve got reasonable agreement now on the path ahead. A complex series of inland troughs are approaching from the interior dragging moist, unstable air down from the tropics. Weak, mobile high pressure in the Tasman gets reinforced by another rapidly weakening low well to the south of Tasmania tomorrow. A small trough of low pressure off the Gippsland coast is replaced by another trough system later in the week. Far to the south of this hot, soupy mess a series of stronger polar lows are traversing the Far Southern Ocean, supplying some small pulses of S swell.

In the short run and winds look nice tomorrow as the trough off the Gippsland coast moves SE and a variable to NW-W/NW flow sets in across the region. Not much surf though- just some tiny S swell leftovers and residual E swell filtering down from the tropics. Expect size in the 1-2ft range with S facing beaches on the Hunter maxing out the available energy with 2ft+ sets. We may see a late kick in new S swell from the frontal activity well to the south but Wed is a better bet. Check your local S swell magnet just before dark for some stray 2-3ft sets. 

We should see a freshening NW-N flow Wed, tending W’ly through the a’noon as the inland trough system approaches and the Gippsland trough deepens and moves south. Longer period S swell in the mix supplies 2-3ft sets at reliable S facing beaches. An a’noon increase in short period NE windswell from a fetch extending up the NSW Coast should see some 2 to occasional 3ft surf, clean under NW-W winds. Tricky day but worth keeping tabs on.

The tail end of the working week will see small S swells. More long-ish period S swell Thurs with S’ly winds after an overnight change. The change sees SW winds out of Bass Strait and pushing up past Tasmania. Not a great deal to these fetches but we should see S facing beaches pop up to 2-3ft during the day from this source.

Winds ease rapidly Fri with land breezes highly likely (W-SW) though the morning. Along with the short period S swell to 2-3ft, we should see some flukey SSE swell from a fetch between the ice shelf and the South Island. Models weakened the windspeeds in the fetch so periods are more modest now than Fridays notes indicated but we should still see some inconsistent 2-3ft sets through the day. Light winds tend light SE through the a’noon, producing another day of small, fun waves for this Autumn which has yet to really fire up. 

This weekend (Apr 1-2)

Not a great deal of action ahead this weekend. There’ll be a trough of low pressure in the Tasman, with S’ly winds on the western flank which will supply small S swell with a S flow along the coast.  That should see light/mod S-SSE winds Sat with a small blend of S swells 2ft or less.

We should see a little more size Sun- tending more SSE-SE- as winds increase around the W and SW flank of the low, offset by the low moving away. Expect 2ft surf building into the 2-3ft range during the day. Light winds early will tend SE and freshen as a high pressure ridge builds along the coast.

Next week (Apr 3 onwards)

Next week looks like a fair chunk of straight onshore wind to deal with, at least for the first half of the week as a strong high pressure belt moves below the Bight and feeds into a coastal trough. 

We’ll pencil in a fresh onshore flow from Mon and likely extending into Wed under current modelling. 

E’ly winds feeding into the trough produce short range swells from that quadrant, pushing up into the 3-4ft range as a minimum.

We may see a trough then move offshore and possibly form a small, closed low later Wed or Thurs bringing offshore winds and a potential return S swell if the low moves offshore.

We’ll have to see how that shapes up before making any preliminary calls, so check back Wed and we’ll run the ruler over it.