Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 27th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Traces of E/NE swell Thurs with freshening NW winds
• Modest S swell Fri PM as front pushes through
• Easing S swells Sat
• Small NE windswell Sun
• Stronger NE windswell likely next week, small Mon, bigger Tues-Thurs
• Potential strong S swell later next week if low forms off Gippsland, check back Fri for updates

Recap

Small swells have continued with 1ft of S swell yesterday and a small signal of NE-E/NE swell to 1-2ft with NW winds shifting W/SW through the a’noon.

This week and next week (Sep27 - Oct 6)

Typical mobile spring pattern with a high moving NE into sub-tropical latitudes, a weakening trough moving north, remnants of a weak low in the Tasman and a new high cell moving through the Bight. High cells are now tending to move NE as they enter the Tasman, bringing NW’ly episodes which were rare through our triple La Niña but are becoming common as we enter El Niño proper. Small, combination swells and some light wind periods pad out the rest of the week with a more entrenched N’ly episode next week with solid NE swell expected.

In the short run we’ll see another small blend of E/NE swell and traces of longer period S swell wrap to 1-2ft with W’ly winds tending NW and freshening in the a’noon.

A front and leading edge of a new high pressure cell will bring a S’ly change Fri after early W’ly winds and tiny surf. Expect a modest bump in new S swell to 2ft through the a’noon although winds will be a problem.

Into the weekend and not much action expected. We’ll see NW winds Sat, persisting into Sun before an a’noon S-S/SE change. Small swells from the S Sat in the 1-2ft range, with a minor amount of NE windswell in the mix Sun and a small bump in S swell following the change. Barely worth working around. 

The new week looks a little more promising. 

N’ly winds freshen Mon with developing NE windswell in the a’noon to 1-2ft. 

Freshening winds into a trough Tues bring a further increase in NE windswell to 2-3ft with a late change likely as the trough works it’s way up the East Coast. 

Wed looks interesting as a trough and potential low forms off the Gippsland coast. We may see a further increase in NE swell to 3-4ft if the winds off the NSW Coast continue to strengthen- models are offering mixed messages there. 

As the low forms a strong S’ly fetch is likely to form adjacent to the East Coast of Tasmania with a rapid rise in new S swell possible late Thurs into Fri. This could be up in the 3-4ft range under fresh SSW-S winds.

It’s early days though and lets see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then.