Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed October 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S groundswell Thu with strengthening N-N/NW winds
• New small S'ly groundswell pulse Fri with W/NW tending SE winds
• Easing surf Sat with W/NW winds
• Stronger S swell Sun with W-W/SW winds

Recap

Small S swells yesterday to 1-2ft with light winds. There’s more S swell in the water today with some long-lined 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches under morning offshore winds and a’noon E/NE seabreezes.

This week and weekend (Oct 12 - 15)

Moderate strength high pressure (1025 hPa) is drifting NE into the Tasman with a strong polar storm well SW of NZ exiting the swell window. That should see a settled short term before another complex trough and frontal system pushes north along the coast tomorrow with a stiff NW-W change. NW’ly winds into the weekend under a very mobile, troughy pattern with some potential next week for a surface low to form in one of the trough lines.

In the short run and todays S swell pulse eases away with a few 2ft sets early, dropping back through the morning. N-N/NW winds early tend more NW-W during the day as a front passes to the south. There’ll be some small NE windswell to 1-2ft in the mix from a mobile N’ly fetch off Bass Strait.

A deeper front well below the state Fri brings a more W/SW flow, with a bump in new S swell to 2ft+ at S facing beaches.

Into the weekend and W’ly winds continue as fronts pass to the south of the state. Sat looks the smaller of the two days with a mix of small S swell and minor NE winndswell possible, but nothing over 2ft is expected, likely 1-2ft at best.

Sunday looks a little juicier as the large fetch of low end gales passes into the Tasman generating a stronger S swell. Expect an undersized start before some decent size builds in mid morning to 3ft at S facing beaches. 

Front passing under the state Sat night brings S swell Sun

Next week looks fairly unexciting for NE Tas. A trough off the coast and extending up to the Gippsland coast is likely to bring S-SE winds Mon, without much swell.

This trough may form a low pressure system in the Tasman, but at this stage, any potential low looks too far north for Tasmania. 

Thus, we’re looking at small mixed swells for most of next week, likely in the 1-2ft range at best.

We may see some more S swell later next week and into the weekend as another frontal progression moving under the continent approaches.

Let’s see how it looks on Fri.