Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 29th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S swells Sat
• Small NE windswell Sun
• Stronger NE windswell next week, small Mon but building PM 
• Solid NE windswell Tues with winds shifting NW, fun Wed with offshore winds
• Potential strong S swell later next week if low forms off Gippsland, check back Mon for updates

Recap

Not much to talk about with the recap. Small E’ly swells to 1-2ft yesterday with NW winds shifting SW in the a’noon. Today has seen winds shift back to the W/NW before an a’noon S/SE change and small S swells to 1ft at S facing beaches. Winds shift back N/NE late in the a’noon.

This weekend and next week (Sep29 - Oct 6)

We’ve got a strong, expansive front passing through the Tasman at present will which supply some small pulses of S swell over the coming days. High pressure over NSW is moving NE into the Tasman, with a N’ly flow presently developing.

No change to the weekend f/cast. Sat sees a light/mod NW flow that may tend N’ly at times. Small S swell will top out at 1-2ft or less at S facing beaches.

Slightly more surf Sun as small NE windswell builds in to 2ft under NW winds, freshening from the W/NW with a late SW change. 

Into the new week and it still looks dynamic with several strong N’ly fetches. Mon should see N’ly winds quickly re-establish and freshen with NE windswell building to 2-3ft.

That N’ly fetch really winds up o/night Mon into Tues with increasing NE windswell into Tues. Surf should be solid Tues with wave heights in the 4-6ft range, under mod/fresh N tending NW winds with a shift to W/NW possible in the a’noon. Surf will ease back in the a’noon but good/great surf is a possibility. We could see some 6ft+ sets in the a’noon as winds freshen into a developing trough of low pressure.

N'ly winds feeding into a developing trough of low pressure bring some real size next week

Plenty of fun sized NE swell to 3ft on Wed under offshore winds.

A further pulse of NE swell is likely Thurs from a fetch off the NSW central coast. This one should be even bigger and better quality as wave trains organise along the longer travel distance. Expect surf to build into the 4-6ft range. Winds will be a problem though as a trough of low pressure deepens off the Gippsland coast driving fresh S’lies along the Tasmanian East Coast. 

This return flow is likely to generate plenty of solid, stormy S swell possibly as early as Thurs PM, more likely Fri. There’s still plenty of model divergence around the outcome but a solid S swell and fresh S’ly winds look likely for Fri into Sat. We may see size up in the 8ft range, although it’s early days and revisions are likely on Mon.

Check back then for the latest and have a great weekend!