Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 25th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell Tues AM, eases during the day with easing S’lies
• Traces of E/NE swell  Wed/Thurs 
• Stronger S swell Fri PM as front pushes through
• Easing S swells Sat
• Small NE windswell Sun
• Stronger NE windswell likely next week, Tues-Thurs check back Wed for updates

Recap

Small S swells Sat were in the 1-2ft range, easing Sun. We saw some building NE windswell Sun and that has continued into today with some 2ft surf, clean under W-NW winds before a stiff S’ly change as a low/front pushed past the state.

This week and next week (Sep25 - Oct 6)

The high pressure belt is behaving in typical spring fashion- tracking NE as it enters the Tasman from the Bight with episodic N’lies ensuing and a continuing W-NW synoptic flow. We’ve got a small fetch out of Cook Strait at present from a decaying low pressure system, and small, compact low about to enter the Tasman bringing todays S’ly change and a S swell tomorrow. A stronger front late this week will supply a modest S pulse heading into the weekend. Read on for details.

In the short run and o/night S’lies wind down quickly tomorrow as the front races away with light S’ly winds tending to variable winds through the morning as a new high cell approaches. Leftover S swell peaks in the 3ft range early, then drops quickly through the day.

Winds tend NW-W/NW again as high moves NE and fronts pass to the south, generating a synoptic W’ly flow. Nothing much for Wed/Thurs, just some traces of E/NE swell Wed and a small bump in S swell wrap for later Thurs. Don’t expect anything more than a just rideable 1-2ft wave.

 Friday will see stronger S swell build in during the a’noon as a stronger front tracks NE into the Tasman past the Island. Early W’ly winds will tend S’ly through the a’noon as the front sweeps up the East Coast, with size building to 3ft at S facing beaches. 

That swell eases through Sat with a few rideable waves in the morning, becoming tiny during the day under NW tending N’ly winds.

Those winds should see some NE windswell develop through Sun morning into the 1-2ft range as N’lies freshen. Surf eases rapidly as the fetch gets shunted eastwards by another front bringing a SW-S’ly change.

Into next week and a small start to the week with minor S swells to 1-2ft from the frontal activity below the state. 

Things look juicier from Tues as winds really accelerate into an approaching complex trough. Models are suggesting quite a strong fetch possibly  Tues into Wed, suggesting some size from the NE possibly as early as late Tues but strongly identified with Wed and possibly Thurs.

We’ll see how it looks on Wed but penciling in at least 2-3ft of NE windswell Tues is  justified, possibly bigger 3-4ft Wed into Thurs. 

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it looks.