A SE/NW angled trough in the Tasman is likely to deepen on Tuesday, possibly forming a surface low. GFS model has this low forming off the Central NSW coast, EC forms a low much further north in the Tasman, close to Norfolk Island, with a very different surf outlook from Tuesday onwards.

To the East a persistent, broad E’ly tradewind fetch is slowly contracting Eastwards, although windspeeds have been increased along the northern flank of a large high by an area of low pressure. This system has already produced 3 days of surf and is expected to supply a slowly diminishing signal until Thurs/Fri, from a peak today.

On the New Zealand side of the basin, troughy remnants of  last week’s low pressure cell invigorate a long, broad tradewind fetch extending from the South Pacific into the Northern Tasman and Coral Sea. While this fetch looks a little less impressive and more mobile than it did on Wed it’s still going to be a solid swell producer for the sub-tropical East Coast. 

An extended E’ly pattern then sets up, as high pressure straddles New Zealand and the troughy remnants of the Tasman low squeeze pressure gradients along a long, broad fetch extending through the South Pacific adjacent to the North Island and extending into the Coral Sea. Models show this fetch then further retrograding back towards the Australian East Coast to end the working week.