South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan24)

SEQLD/NENSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small pulse of E swell Tues, tending E/SE Wed with light winds, offering fun beachbreaks and small Point surf
• Long range E/SE swell Wed/Thurs, lully and inconsistent with light winds.
• Fun E swell hangs into Fri
• Rebuild in fun tradewind swell this weekend with light winds
• New E swell builds in Mon, holds Tues next week. Check back Wed for details.

Recap

Winds and swell slowly eased over the weekend with 3-4ft surf Sat and fresh SE winds, giving way to a lighter S’ly flow Sun and 3ft sets. Small clean waves on the Points had the best quality but there were some beach break options around. Lighter SW winds this morning have seen clean conditions with a slight rebuild in size seeing some 3ft+ sets, and again lots of clean peelers on the Points. That pattern will continue this week with juicier tropical action ahead for next week. Details below.  

Bluewater peaks look appealing

Small lines on the Points

This week (Jan 24-28)

Our Summer blocking looks similar to how we left it on Friday. Weak high pressure now sits East of Tasmania, smearing out across the lower Tasman towards New Zealand. A trough of low pressure has drifted south-westwards from the South Pacific into the area west of the North Island and looks a touch healthier than it did during Friday. ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes over the last 24-36hrs showed a well aimed but compact fetch of mostly strong winds which were aimed at the sub-tropics and are now shifted southwards.

In the short run, with the high drifting away the ridge the sub-tropics weakens  leaving a regime of light winds: land breezes early, tending to light SE to E/SE seabreezes. 

Swell from the E generated by the weak low is expected to push surf up into the 3ft+ range later Mon, holding into Tues and tending more E/SE to SE in angle  with the change of some bigger 3ft+ surf at exposed breaks. Plenty of fun beachbreaks and small peelers should be on the menu.

That same mid period SE swell slowly weakens through Wed, with leftover energy in the 3ft range on a slow easing trend through the day, with similar light land and seabreezes offering up good conditions for the open beachbreaks. 

As that swell ebbs away we’ll see long range E swell fill in. This is a swell we mentioned last week, and while it’s a long way away and the strongest winds were aimed to the south, it’s still expected to produce some inconsistent 3ft sets, possibly a notch bigger at noted E swell magnets. Expect this swell to fill in Wed morning and ease into Thurs, with inconsistent 2-3ft sets slowly winding back into the 2ft range during the day. 

Light winds Wed, are expected to restrengthen a notch Thursday as a new high slips into the Bight and resets the high pressure ridge. Those winds will tend SE-E/SE  through the day.

Small E swell trains from distant and proximate sources hold surf in the 2-3ft range to finish the working week. Light/mod SE to E/SE winds should have good odds of being lighter inshore early. SW on the Southern Gold Coast.

Nothing amazing but good fun waves every day this week. 

This weekend (Jan 29 - 30)

Not a great deal of action expected this weekend. The charts will be looking good as low pressure steams around the corner from New Caledonia and drops into the slot but we won’t see major swell from that until the following week.

The cradling fetch below the low and general tradewinds through the Southern Coral Sea energise the sea state late this week and after a slow start Sat that should see swell start to tick up from the E. Expect size in the 2-3ft range early, picking up into the 3ft range during the day. Light SE winds may tend SW early, but will likely be light enough for most beachbreaks to be in play.

Sunday sees that mid period tradewind swell hold in the 3ft range with similar light SE-E/SE winds and morning land breezes. Same deal: small fun beachbreaks and lots of peelers on the Points on the lower tides.

Next week (Jan 31 onwards)

As mentioned above a tropical low, potentially another cyclone, forms between Vanuatu and New Caledonia later this week into the weekend, emerging from behind Grand Terre and dropping into the South Pacific slot Sunday, with a supporting fetch of E’ly winds having developed between New Cal and the North Island on the weekend. 

Models are still divergent over the strength of the tropical low, with EC favouring a much more modest system, while GFS has a severe gale force or even storm force low/cyclone.

Nonetheless there’s a lot to like either way, with an excellent cradling high east of New Zealand and an expected SW movement back towards the East Coast early next week. 

So, while we’ll need a bit more model guidance to get a good handle on wave heights, we can expect Mon seeing the first pulse of very good quality E swell. 

Winds look perfect for the Points with winds tending light S/SE to SE. Potential for beachies early morning.

We’ll pencil in size building to 4-5ft during Mon, and extending into Tues at least at similar sizes. Depending on the strength and track of the low size could easily get an upgrade.

Under current modelling size is expected to ease Wed as the low drifts south through the. Tasman.

Longer term and we’re keeping eyes on a potentially strong front pushing East of Tasmania later next week, with S swell potential.

The tropics remain active with a monsoonal surge still ongoing later next week and more potential for tropical low development in the Coral Sea.

Check back Wed for a full update.