South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Mon 31st Jan)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Solid E'ly swell building Tues (tending E/SE in SE Qld), with early light winds tending a'noon N'ly in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (variable elsewhere)
• E'ly swell easing from Wednesday, with a N'ly risk across the entire region
• Temp easing size Thurs but windy with a gusty S'ly change
• Rebuilding mid-range S/SE swell Fri with fresh S/SE winds, much smaller on the protected points
• Solid E/SE swell developing over the weekend, with gusty SE winds, great waves at the points
• Large E/SE swell persisting Mon - Thurs, with gusty SE winds, great waves at the points

Recap

Small E'ly swells padded out the weekend and this morning, with generally light morning winds. Size peaked at around 2-3ft each day with the upper end of this size range more prevalent south of the border. We're seeing a few bigger waves today. Winds have been generally out of the southerly quadrant (SE early, then S'ly thru' SE through the days), though Saturday saw a moderate easterly flow in some regions.

This week (Feb 2 - 5)

Alright, I'm straight into the deep end this week, having not looked at the Tasman synoptics for a while (always the way, eh?).

An impressive subtropical low pressure system sliding into the Northern Tasman Sea today looks quite sublime on the charts. A broad high to the south is stretching out a lovely easterly fetch on its southern flank, and it's reasonably wide too, which should allow for a broad coverage of size the length of the East Coast.

This swell should kick in overnight, and show strongly on Tuesday, though the biggest waves will be found south of the border, probably pushing 5-6ft+ at exposed spots. This is thanks to the slow southward track of the low and a slightly better fetch alignment towards the southern regions.

North of the border, we'll see less size (swell direction will veer slightly more south of east, too) though most open beaches should manage 3-4ft sets and reliable swell magnets should push 4-5ft+ at times. Expect smaller surf running down the sheltered points.

Early light winds on Tuesday morning will be your best time to capitalise on. We've got a risk of afternoon northerlies, mainly across SE Qld and nosing into Far Northern NSW, thanks to an approaching inland trough from the west. However winds should remain variable south from Ballina (note: variable means 'from any direction', which could be onshore).

Wave heights will then ease steadily through Wednesday though early morning should still see plenty of size, especially across the Mid North Coast. Ballpark size range is 3ft+ at exposed beaches north of the border, and 4-5ft across Northern NSW, losing a foot or more through the day.

There's an enhanced risk for northerlies on Wednesday too, once again more so across SE Qld than  Northern NSW (though, the risk will increase here too).

A fresh southerly change will push up into Northern NSW overnight Wednesday, reaching the border through Thursday morning though we'll probably see a few hours at least of N/NW winds in SE Qld at first (the S'ly will be delayed on the Sunny Coast compared to the Gold Coast).

As we'll be between swells at this point, expect smaller surf though with building short range southerly energy through the day across Northern NSW as the breeze strengthens. This swell will originate from a developing low along the trough line in the central Tasman Sea overnight Wednesday, which will redevelop a secondary S/SE fetch.

Wave heights therefore look to be strong on Friday out of the S/SE, pushing 6ft+ at south facing beaches south of the border, but terribly wind affected. You'll have to slide into a sheltered southern point for the best waves. 

North of the border, SE Qld will pick up much less size from this southerly swell direction but we should see building 3ft+ surf across the semi exposed points, whilst exposed northern ends will see blustery 4-5ft+ surf. Protected inner points wil be only small.

This weekend (Feb 6 - 7)

We've got an unusual blocking pattern setting up for the weekend. 

A high pressure ridge will move in from the south, and a broad trough of low pressure extending south from the Coral Sea into the Tasman Sea - to a focal point close to the west coast of New Zealand - will receive assistance from a developing monsoon pattern across the tropical regions (probably spinning off a tropical cyclone, too).

This will result in a broad, stationary SE fetch stretching from New Zealand into the Coral Sea. This is a classic summer setup for SE Qld's points, and we're looking at an extended run of great conditions for anywhere offering sheltered from the SE breeze. 

Saturday will see the smallest day of this pattern as the fetch recalibrates its south-east alignment, but we're still looking at 2-3ft surf across the semi exposed points in the morning, reaching 3-4ft into the aftertnoon and then 4-5ft into Sunday. 

Exposed spots - especially south of the border - will be bigger but way too wind affected.

So, lock in some shelter this weekend, there are good waves on the way. 

Next week (Feb 8 onwards)

Currently modelling suggests we'll see a peak in the strength of the anchored SE fetch later Sunday or Monday (see below) which means a broad plateau in E/SE swell from Monday through Wednesday. 

The coastal ridge will remain firm through this time period, so it'll only favour protected points, but we'll see wave heights ebb and flow in the 6-8ft range throughout these four days, possibly with a few pulses of bigger surf.

Of course, this is for exposed spots, which will be blown out. But this extended run of quality point break surf means there's a chance for the crowds to spread out over the course of the week which, combined with a consistent, super-charged trade swell event, should allow a (relatively) healthy wave count for all and sundry. The charts really do look quite amazing right now.

Time to get ready for another round of great summer surf on the points. 

Let's see how things are shaping up on Wednesday!