South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 4th Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Very windy conditions devloping Thurs, persisting until Mon/Tues
• Large combo of S'ly and SE swells from Fri thru' Mon
• S/SE pulse favouring Mid North Coast Tues/Wed
• Better conditions from Tues/Wed onwards with lighter winds and a mix of strong SE and E swells
• Active surf period continues, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Surf has been a little slow on the uptake as the Tasman Sea becomes inflamed with a long fetch of strong winds to gales, courtesy of a monster high and embedded lows, along the leading edge of the high

Surf was small yesterday, in the 2ft range, and today we are seeing a building trend, more obvious across NENSW. Size this a’noon is building into the 4-5ft range ,with smaller 2-3ft surf in SEQLD now also building. For the most part, some protection from strong S’lies has dictated surf able locations and these more protected spots are running a bit smaller than more exposed stretches of coast.  This pattern of strong S’ly quarter winds is going to be with us for a while, so buckle up. Details below.

Already solid in NENSW

On the build in SEQLD

This weekend (Feb 6 - 7)

Not much change to the weekend f/cast. The blocking pattern mentioned in Wed’s notes is now well set up, noteworthy for it’s length and duration. A monster high moving through the Bight is strengthening with the pressure gradient tightened along the entire ridge line by a low pressure trough with embedded low systems in it. The trough extends from the South Island New Zealand up to the monsoon trough across CapeYork Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpenteria. 

The whole blocking pattern is slow moving- the high is only just south ofTasmania by the end of the weekend- so the weekend wind forecast is essentially stable. Fresh S to SE winds both days. Mostly SE though, with less chance of a window of morning SW winds compared to the last couple of days.

Surf wise there’ll be plenty of swell both days. 

As mentioned Wed, a larger pulse Sat morning from an intensification of winds along the trough line will see surf boost up into the 5-6ft  range. Expect the biggest surf in NENSW half of the f/cast region and only a few select spots will be surf able under the prevailing wind regime. Expect smaller 4-5ft surf at most SEQLD spots, with even smaller waves at more protected Points. There’ll be some longer period S swell trains in the water as well which will aid refraction into the more sheltered spots.

No great change Sun, surf heights build a notch as the longer period pulse from Sat extends into Sun but given the prevailing wind and sea state it won’t make much a of material difference. We’ll still be looking at 5-6ft surf across most of the exposed breaks in the NENSW region,  with smaller surf at the more sheltered spots. It’ll be a weekend of strong winds, so sheltered Points will be the only game in town. 

Next week (Feb 8 onwards)

Whoa, it’s a dynamic brew shaping up next week. A strong monsoonal surge pushing off the tropics into the Coral Sea is super-charged by the vorticity created by the monster high pressure ridge. Models now seem in broad agreement that a large, dual-centred,  low pressure gyre forms across the Coral Sea/South Pacific and into the North Tasman Sea (see below). It looks more like a North Pacific “Hawaiian-style” system than a typical East Coast set-up.

The Tasman sea end of the gyre deepens and retrogrades later this weekend and into Monday. This aims  a fetch of SE-E/SE gales from Cook Strait into the Central Tasman, straight back at the NSW Coast. While this fetch is mostly aimed at targets to the south of the f/cast region there will be radial spread from this source as well as a maintenance of S/SE swell from the parent source fetch.

Monday will see a slight levelling off into the 4-5ft range with winds just starting to tilt more S/SE , compared to the weekends SE winds. It’s still likely only a Points-only day, with a few semi-sheltered spots offering the only alternatives to battling the crowds.

Tuesday sees the stronger SE-E/SE swell from the aforementioned fetch make landfall, more apparent on the Mid North Coast. At this stage we’re looking at an increase in size likely during the morning into the 6ft range. With the retrograding low, winds will start to tilt more straight S’ly, perhaps even SSW, which should open up a few more locations. Size will grade smaller the further north you go with the rest of NENSW in the 3-5ft range and smaller 3-4ft surf in SEQLD. Out of the wind size will grade even smaller down the Points.

By mid next week winds should start to settle and become more favourable. The Tasman low will have pushed closer to the coast and dissipated, leaving a much weaker synoptic environment, with a good chance of lighter SW breezes inshore. Wed looks good for leftover S/SE groundswell in the 5-6ft range in NENSW and morning SW winds. Size in the 3-5ft range at exposed spots in SEQLD with a possible window of lighter SSW to SW breezes inshore early.

The end of next week will depend on developments from the South Pacific end of the large, low pressure gyre. There’s a bit of model variance still to work through, with GFS suggesting a larger system drifting down from near Fiji, developing a fetch of E winds off the top of the North Island before tracking through the Tasman. That suggests a pulse of E/NE to E’ly swell possibly arriving by Fri next week with the weekend seeing E swell.

EC has a more compact system which becomes absorbed into a mid-latitude system as a strong new high pressure ridge builds. That indicates a pulse of E/NE swell in a similar timeframe before another round of building SE wind and swell into next weekend.

There’s plenty to occupy us in the short term so check back Mon and we’ll run a fresh ruler over it then.

Till then, have a great weekend!