South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan28)

SEQLD/NENSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Rebuild in fun tradewind swell this weekend with mod SE winds favouring the Points 
• New E swell builds in Mon with SSE to SE winds
• Much more muscular E swell from tropical depression Tues, holds Wed AM before easing slightly during the day. Light S to SSE winds expected
• Fun leftovers Thurs with light winds favouring beachies
• Strong trough and high pressure ridge next week with potential for strong S to S/SE swell, stay tuned for updates due to dynamic outlook
• More E swell in the medium term

Recap

Swell has been on a slow decline through the last 24-36 hrs as our E swell cycle bottoms out. A few longer range E’ly sets provided some inconsistent 3ft surf yesterday with reasonable conditions in the morning, deteriorating in the a’noon under onshore winds. Today has seen further decline, with most spots in the 2ft range or just below. Conditions were generally pretty ordinary today with rain showers and E’ly winds.

Sunshine sea but still sloppy

This weekend (Jan 29 - 30)

No great changes to the weekend f/cast. We’re expecting a perk up in E’ly swell Sat as E’ly winds extending from the North Island retrograde back into the Tasman Sea through Fri/Sat.

This will produce a Tradewind-style swell reaching up into the 2-3ft, then 3-4ft range during the a’noon. Winds will remain mod E/SE, tending more SE through the a’noon. Expect bumpy/lumpy Beachbreaks and groomed conditions on the more sheltered Points.

Surf holds in the 3-4ft range Sun, with mod SE winds supplying another textbook day of small fun waves on the Points and scrappy Beachbreaks for those with a tolerance for side shore winds.

Next week (Jan 31 onwards)

The charts will show a low pressure system tracking in from the South Pacific with a very healthy fetch between the low and a supporting high straddling New Zealand over Sun into Mon (see below). Hold your horses though if you need to time the peak. Monday will still be the entree. There will be a muscling up in strength of the swell as longer period swell trains make landfall, with size in the 4ft range, and more refraction into the more sheltered Points and Bays. Winds look great for Mon as the high pressure ridge breaks down and light S to SE winds become established with good odds for a window of morning SW breezes.

Dreamy set-up with low retrograding towards East Coast and good supporting high

Tuesday looks fantastic, as new, longer period E/SE swell builds in. Models still show some variance in the strength of the low as it retrogrades back towards the East Coast. EC has a significantly lower windspeed within the fetch compared to GFS. Based on that, and until we see the actual windspeed involved a slightly conservative call is appropriate- with the possibility of an upgrade on Mon, once we get an ASCAT reading.

Pencil in strong swell building from the 3-5ft range up into  4-5ft range during the morning. Possibly some 6ft sets at the more exposed E swell magnets. Light morning SW breezes should tend to light SE’ly breezes during the day, with nothing over 10-15 knots expected. Tuesday looks like an A grade day if you can find a bank handling the strength of the swell.

Wow, things get complicated from Wed. We’ll sketch out the basics here and expect revision on Mon once the details come into sharper focus.

First, expect strong E swell to continue Wed, in the 4-5ft range, with scope for upwards revision. Light winds will be on offer for at least the first half of the day with NE seabreezes likely in the a’noon. A slight and slow easing trend should set in during the a’noon.

Light winds continue into Thursday with easing surf from the E/SE. A trough will be pushing up the coast but it’s unlikely to reach out region during Thurs. Expect leftover E/SE swell in the 3ft range, with a further easing trend through the day.

The end of the week then rapidly gets extremely dynamic. A monster high moving into the Bight in conjunction with the coastal trough produces an intense surge of S to SE winds up into the Tasman, then Southern Coral Sea.

This alone, in conjunction with the front pushing across the lower Tasman will see a blend of S then S/SE swell overlapping the E’ly swell trains through Thurs and Fri.

EC continues the trough up into the Coral Sea, with intense SE winds developing along the high pressure ridge line, and possible vorticity once the high pressure surge hits the Monsoon Trough. That’s one possible scenario.

GFS deepens the trough, forming a deep surface low off the Central NSW Coast Fri into Sat. If this potential storm force system comes off, we’ll be looking at a day of W’ly winds feeding into the system Fri, before gale force SW to S winds develop later Fri into Sat and a monster local swell is generated.

Potential for large S swell if low forms as modelled above

We’ll flag this now, accepting it’s a low confidence scenario this far out, and monitor closely over the weekend for the Monday update. It’s a dynamic forecast period ahead.

And just to add some complexity, medium range E swell continues towards the end of next week as reinforcing low pressure systems drop into the South Pacific slot, albeit at a miuch reduced level to the current low. Stay tuned for updates on this on Mon.

Till then, have a great weekend!