The basic building blocks of the pattern are a strong high pressure belt cradling multiple low pressure systems in the Coral Sea and South Pacific- essentially creating a huge, multi-centred low pressure gyre through a vast area of ocean to our east.
Primary tabs
This will be generated by the increasing winds in the deep E’ly wind field retrograding W towards the coast as a large area of tropical low pressure off the QLD coast starts to deepen and move S.
Trade flows across the South Coral and Northern Tasman Sea won’t be particularly strong this week but the broad scale coverage of winds and an uptick in wind strengths in more proximate areas of the fetch Tues/Wed will be enough to see a modest building trend into Thurs and Fri, albeit a bit underwhelming compared to model guidance on Fri.
A weakening trough moving up the NSW coast will peter out across the Northern Rivers on Saturday morning.
Looks like broad brushstrokes can be used to outline the next few days
Under the influence of the high pressure belt it’ll be a week of SE to E/SE’ly winds and a small blend of E’ly tradewind swell trains.
The headline news is TC Dovi, which formed north-east of New Caledonia Wed a’noon and is moving SW at about 12 knots inside the Coral Sea. At 5am this morning TC Dovi was about 730 nautical miles E/NE of the Queensland border. That puts it in our swell window and although Dovi is currently Cat 3 it’s surf potential is limited by the compact fetch and expected increased speed of movement over the next 24 hrs.
A building trend will be in place Sat, primarily from the ridge that develops between a strong high and the cyclone/low as it begins the journey south.
A broad region of low pressure in the central/northeastern Tasman Sea is maintaining easterly thru’ south-easterly gales (via two seperate fetches) aimed mainly towards Southern NSW, but a healthy percentage is pushing SE energy up into Northern NSW.
A strong monsoonal surge pushing off the tropics into the Coral Sea is super-charged by the vorticity created by the monster high pressure ridge. Models now seem in broad agreement that a large, dual-centred, low pressure gyre forms across the Coral Sea/South Pacific and into the North Tasman Sea.