South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 13th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• New S swell for NENSW Thurs with freshening SW-S winds, not much in SEQLD
• More S swell Fri with SW winds,becoming S-SE in the a'noon, small waves at SEQLD magnets
• Easing surf Sat, becoming tiny Sun, with winds tending NW-N
• Few small days with light winds ahead to start next week
• Tracking potential low pressure development in the Coral Sea/Northern Tasman later next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Yesterdays roll down in size from Mondays strong SSE groundswell was a bit underwhelming in size and quality with NENSW seeing sone slow and a tad scrappy 4footers, smaller 2ft north of the Border. Conditions were clean for most of the day before a light N’ly kicked in. Today has seen some small leftovers in the 3ft range in NENSW, 1-2ft in SEQLD. W’ly winds are increasing and tending SW as a trough/low winds up off the Mid North Coast. 

Smal, clean peaks on offer this morning

This week (July 13-15)

A trough line moving north-wards along the NSW Coast is spawning a surface low pressure system today, with the pressure gradient between the low and a high advancing through the interior creating a stiff S’ly flow along the coast. This S’ly fetch is only thin and short-lived and moves away quite quickly through Friday after generating a spike in ragged S swell. 

Windy and raggedy tomorrow with fresh to strong SW to S winds. That’ll make a mess of S facing beaches all day, where size will quickly build into the 3-5ft range in NENSW, smaller 2ft on the Gold Coast and not making much impact on the Sunshine Coast. Quality will be low and size much smaller in more protected locations. Keep expectations pegged low for tomorrow.

Friday looks wind affected as the thin fetch moves away quickly- followed by a broader fetch- which also moves away during the day, and winds tend from S to SE through the day. Expect an early SW flow on the Southern Gold Coast and Far Northern NSW before winds freshen from the S and then tend SE during the a’noon at lighter speeds. We should see a marginal improvement in swell quality degraded by the wind, with sets to 4-5ft in NENSW at S exposed breaks, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches. Small peelers at protected Points will likely offer the best wave quality.

This weekend (July 16-17)

Not much change to the weekend outlook. High pressure drifts across NSW at a more sub-tropical latitude typical of late Winter/Spring. That will see a light W’ly flow Sat, tending more NW’ly Sun. So, clean for most beachbreaks and reefs with a SE orientation.

Surf-wise there’s no major swell sources on the charts. We'll be surfing the remaining energy from this week's S swell.

South quadrant leftovers will supply a few 3-4ft sets on Saturday in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD and easing through the day. Worth a look under primo conditions early before a light NE seabreeze is likely to kick up.

By Sunday that will have eased away and we’re looking at small surf in the 2-3ft range at the most reliable swell magnets in NENSW. Tiny/flat at most breaks north of the QLD border. Looks like a good day for a snorkel at the local reefs.

Next week (July 18 onwards)

Still looking like a very quiet start to next week. A weak offshore flow is expected Mon with small surf continuing. A weak, but broad tradewind flow is right on the periphery of the swell window, and is likely to supply a small E swell signal into SEQLD, possibly showing as early as late Sun, more likely Mon and not worth more than some peaky 2footers, possibly 2-3ft on the Northern Sunshine Coast.

A weak trough brings a S’ly change Tues to NENSW, with light winds continuing elsewhere and mostly small weak swells. Mostly weak E’ly surf in the 2ft+ range at exposed breaks in SEQLD, a notch bigger on the Sunshine Coast. 

A frontal progression races across the Lower Tasman over the weekend (see below) and this is expected to send a small amount of S’ly groundswell our way arriving later Tues across the Mid North Coast in the 2-3ft range, holding at that size Wed and unlikely to show north of the border.

Things start to look a little juicier by the end of next week. 

Ongoing troughiness through the Coral and Tasman Sea may spawn another low in the Southern Coral or Northern Tasman, potentially generating solid swell into later next week and the weekend of 23/24 July. Models are still flip-flopping and showing poor consistency run to run, so we’ll just flag it for now. Check back Fri and we’ll see if but amounts to anything substantial.

Seeya then.