South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 11th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Strong SSE groundswell Mon, with SW-S winds
• Easing SSE groundswell Tues with clean conditions
• Small leftovers from the SSE Wed, clean most of the day
• New S swell for NENSW Thurs with freshening SW winds, not much in SEQLD
• More S swell Fri with SW winds, small waves at SEQLD magnets
• Easing surf Sat, becoming tiny Sun, with winds tending NW-N
• Few small days with N’ly winds ahead to start next week

Recap

Lots of fun, clean surf over the weekend, mostly 3-4ft in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft on the Gold Coast and around 2ft on the Sunshine Coast. Light winds all weekend tended offshore until around lunch-time with weak S’lies in the a’noon. A major increase in SSE groundswell hit just after dark Sunday for most of the region and today has seen surf in the 6-8ft range in NENSW, with 4ft surf on the Gold Coast, 2-3ft on the Sunshine Coast. SW winds have now tended S’ly and are in the process of easing through the a’noon.

SSE groundswell with enough size and period to wrap nicely into the Southern Gold Coast Points

This week (July 11-15)

The synoptic set-up this week is essentially the same as we described it in Friday’s notes. The remnants of the Tasman Low (ex ECL) are now drifting near the South Island, on top of a large high which is slowly moving out of the Tasman Sea. A high is approaching from the South Australian interior, with a trough expected to form off the coast later Tues and develop a broad, relatively weak low in the Central/Northern Tasman. It’s still a tricky set-up, but nowhere near as dynamic as the last couple of weeks. 

Tomorrow still looks like the best day of the forecast. Size will have eased a fair bit from the peak today but we’re still looking at a good looking 4-6ft of mid period S/SE swell at NENSW exposed breaks, smaller 3ft in SEQLD and co-operative winds as weak high pressure drifts over the region. That should see offshores lingering well into the lunch or post-lunch surf with a light, late NW to N’ly to close out the day. 

By Wed, a trough starts to stir off the coast and in response to a cold front pushing up past Tasmania we’ll see an increasing W to SW flow tending SSW’ly through the a’noon as the trough forms into a large area of low pressure. Clean leftovers in the 3ft range in NENSW, will grade smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD. An easing trend continues through the a’noon.

The developing low forms a strong, but thin fetch along the NSW Coast up into the sub-tropics and into the Coral Sea Thursday (see below). It’s not a well aligned fetch for our region, with swell shadowing from the Hunter and the general alignment of NENSW, creating an unfavourable environment for swell production. Nonetheless, the length of the fetch will still be sufficient to generate some mid period S swell for NENSW On Thurs, up into the 3-4ft range during the day. A small amount, less than 2ft, should just trickle north of the Border. It’s unlikely anything will get around Cape Moreton. Quality should be a bit raw and ragged, so keep expectations pegged low for Thurs.

We’re expecting that raw and rapid spike in S swell to build a little  during Friday as the thin, coastal fetch thickens up and moves northwards, more into the sub-tropics. That should see a morning peak in mid-period S swell in the 4-5ft range in NENSW, grading smaller 2-3ft at SEQLD S swell magnets. Early offshore winds, tend more SSW to S through the day, so you’ll need to surf early to get the cleanest conditions or find some wind protection.

This weekend (July 16-17)

Looks like a weekend of vaguely Spring-like winds ahead, as high pressure sits in the Tasman at a much more northerly latitude than we’ve seen so far this Winter. In conjunction with approaching fronts that should drive a more W/NW to NW flow across most of the sub-tropics- a more typical late Winter/early Spring flow. Those winds will even tend more N’ly Sunday.

Surf-wise we are looking at decreasing energy with Saturday seeing the best of it. We should see 3-4ft of leftover SSE-SE surf in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD, favouring open beaches and S facing spots under the prevailing winds.

By Sunday surf is expected to have dropped right back to tiny levels. 2-3ft at exposed S facing beaches in NENSW, and easing back during the day. Tiny north of the border. Expect winds to tend N’ly through the day after a morning period of more W/NW to NW.

Next week (July 18 onwards)

Few small onshore days to start the next week. GFS has a weak, blocking pattern with a suppressed Southern Storm track, that likely to see Mon and Tues maintain tiny surf with a slight lift in S swell Wed. Expect the weak N’ly flow to persist through Mon and Tues. 

EC has a much more bullish outlook with a vigorous Tasman low forming Tues/Wed next week, suggesting a stiff ramping up in S to SE swell from as early as Wed next week.

Pencil a couple of small days either way, to start the week and we’ll come back Wed and hope the European model takes the bikkies.