South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 4th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Offshore winds every morning this week
• Small residual E swell favouring SEQLD Tues/Wed
• Small, fun SE swell Tues
• Increase in SE swell Wed PM, holding Thurs AM
• Increase in SSE swell Fri with clean conditions
• Plenty of strong SSE-SE swell this weekend with uncertain wind outlook
• SSE swell extends into week following, stay tuned for updates
• Tracking potential low pressure development next week as dynamic pattern continues, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Lovely clean conditions all weekend, with a low off the coast of Sydney giving the sub-tropics a light W’ly biased flow most of the day. S swell over-achieved in NENSW with sets to 3ft both Sat and Sun, with SEQLD seeing smaller, mostly E’ly swell in the 2ft range. Today has seen more clean surf in the 3ft range in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. All in all a very fun weekend.

Dreamy conditions and fun surf in NENSW over the weekend

This week (July 4-8)

Tasman Sea is looking very, very spicy this week with our current low looking to meander N and E, then S and reintensify later in the week, sending  swell to the East Coast with mostly favourable conditions in our sub-tropical region. We’ve currently got a strong pressure squeeze between a dominant high in the Bight (1033 hPa) and the complex low system off the Central NSW Coast. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) pass shows strong winds to low end gales extending due E of the Central down to South Coasts. A long trough-line extends down from the Northern Coral Sea into the Tasman- a continuing  source of instability. This pattern will send swell from the SE this week, favouring NENSW for maximum size, with mostly favourable winds.

In the short run and winds veer S/SW to SE  through Tues and Wed as the current synoptic pattern continues.  There should be lengthy periods of W to SW winds both mornings, providing clean conditions. 

The SE fetch extends further into Tasman through the day Tues, and that is likely to generate increasing swell from the SE through Wed. 

Expect clean 2-3ft surf through NENSW Tues, smaller in SEQLD, bumping up a notch Wed with 3ft surf in NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQLD. Nothing amazing but plenty of fun, clean surf is expected.

 A reintensification is likely due E of the region Wed, as a complex low pressure area in the Tasman interacts with the trough line extending southwards from the Coral Sea (see below). It's better aimed at targets in temperate NSW but still likely to see an increase in E/SE-SE swell later Thurs- not that it will have dropped much, but surf should rebuild into the 3-4ft range Thurs PM in NENSW, smaller 3ft in SEQLD. Winds look to swing more W/NW, through the day. Perfect for exposed beachbreaks.

Complicating an already stacked chart is a cold front pushing through Fri. That is likely to see mod SSW winds through the morning, easing back in the a’noon and tending SW. Expect a combination of steep rising short-range, directional S swell on the MNC and E/SE swell in the 4ft range Fri.  With winds expected to ease back in the a’noon, sheltered and semi-sheltered spots should clean up, although there’ll still be some residual lump and bump from such an agitated sea state.

This weekend (July 9-10)

Still a significant amount of model variation surrounding this weekend, which makes these calls subject to low confidence, and likely to be revised come Wed. Especially the wind outlooks.

Surf-wise we’re still up for plenty of size, with the low drifting towards the West Coast of the South Island, likely reinvigorating later this week. That should see at least 4-5ft of S-SSE swell in NENSW, smaller 3ft+ in SEQLD. Winds will be dependent on the low position and how Fridays front evolves. Latest GFS suggest still plenty of SSW to S winds Sat.

EC has a weaker area low pressure in the trough line East of the region, with lighter SW to W winds through Sat.

With such a dynamic pattern we’re going to have to revise Wed. Some kind of S’ly quarter wind is highly likely.

Sunday looks a similarly shaky bet. Gales forming off the SW of the South Island through Fri into Sat (see below) should see a strong pulse of SSE groundswell Sun so swell with not be a problem. We’ll finesse size and timing Wed but we should see at least 4-5ft of size through the a’noon in NENSW, 3ft+ in SEQLD.

Winds will be dependent on another troughy area of low pressure off the Coast. EC suggests the area lingering off the Hunter, with light SW breezes.

GFS has a stronger high pressure ridge setting up with mod/fresh SE winds developing Sun. 

Keep the pencil handy to get a surf in Sunday if the wind f/cast swings our way. There’ll be plenty of swell.

Next week (July 11 onwards)

Dynamic, troughy outlook is playing havoc with weather models, so we look into next week with extremely low confidence.

Some sort of low pressure development in the Tasman looks almost certain next week. 

The fetch near the South Island builds strong surf from the SSE-SE into Mon likely exceeding 6ft in NENSW, with the addition of more E’ly angled swell from a Cook Strait fetch over the weekend. Winds are still up in the air.

EC suggests then another complex low in the Northern Tasman, rapidly developing E’ly gales aimed at a wide swathe of the East Coast and solid E’ly swell incoming later Tues into Wed/Thurs.

GFS has a much more modest SE flow adjacent to the sub-tropics with a troughy pattern developing over Central NSW. That will see surf diminishing from Tues into next week.

To be honest, I think the models are struggling to resolve the pattern and a “watch and wait” attitude is the most appropriate one. 

EC sure looks juicy though!

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.