South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wed 29th June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Easing SE swells Thurs with light morning winds, small and clean Fri (not much size in SE Qld)
• Tricky weekend, probably small-ish with light winds Sat, tending onshore Sunday with building size
• Large, possibly very large, surf possible for quite a few days into next week, though confidence is low on specifics

Recap

S’ly swells built to 3-5ft at south facing beaches in Northern NSW on Tuesday, though surf size remained very small in SE Qld. Conditions were a little ragged with fresh SE tending S’ly winds in parts, and only small surf at protected spots. Wave heights eased a little today and winds also throttled back from the same direction as yesterday.  

This week (June 30 - July 1)

Looks like a quiet end to the week, with some major model revisions over the last few days - certainly not wiping out the expected major swell event, just shunting it down the timeline a little.

Right now we’re on the backside of Tuesday’s south swell (now tending SE) and it’ll continue to ease into Thursday though a couple of small new south swells will glance the coast through the day, probably keeping south swell magnets (in Northern NSW) just-rideable with little waves for the grommets. Models have around a foot at 13 seconds Thursday, nudging up to 14 seconds on Friday, so keep your expectations low. Conditions should be clean with light winds in the morning.

As such, the residual SE energy is probably your best bet on Thursday with early light winds in most regions. South swell magnets south of the border may pick up a few stray 3ft sets but in general expect size to ease to 2ft by the afternoon, and it’ll be a little smaller elsewhere, especially in SE Qld. Only frothers need apply at exposed beaches. 

Don't expect much on Friday, it'll be small but winds should remain light, so the swell magnets should have workable options around the tide.

This weekend (July 2-3)

A complex trough spanning much of the East Coast will develop over the next few days, of which the latest model guidance is pointing towards a significant easterly trough low (that may become an ECL) slowly evolving from Saturday through the first half of next week.

However, we’ve seen major swings from model run to model run all week, so keep your expectations low for the weekend as there’s simply not enough evidence in the data nor confidence in the models to suggest anything worthwhile.

Right now I’m expecting a small mix of short/mid range swells best suited to to beaches on Saturday. On Sunday we’re potentially looking at freshening easterly quadrant winds (more SE in the north) and building local swells - that may just be enough for the semi-exposed points - but it’s impossible to hone in on the specifics. Let’s take another look on Friday.

Next week (July 4 onwards)

We really won’t have any confidence in the outlook for next week until, well, probably next week. Maybe the weekend. But it's not worth worrying about right now.

And there are major difference in the models regarding the evolution and structure of this developing trough/low off the NSW Coast, which further reduces confidence (on an already low confidence outlook). It’s best shown in the difference between GFS and EC: the American model suggesting a SE alignment in the supporting ridge to the south; the European model suggesting an E/NE alignment. Both of which have significant differences in their output for wind and waves. 

So, let’s just pencil in ‘big surf, lotta onshore wind’ for next week (more likely in NSW than SE Qld) , with a chance for some really big, really windy conditions - especially if ECMWF eventuates. It’s just too divergent to make a call on at the moment. Though, there are trends in the model output showing better wind conditions will prevail in the north (than in the south), so this could provide opportunities for solid, clean options across points and other sheltered regions. That's as much as I'm willing to speculate on.

Either way, there’s a lot of sizeable swell on the way, quite likely to be bank-bustin’ too. 

Damn.