South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 15th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Easing S'ly swell all weekend, biggest south of the border
• Light winds Sat, freshening NW breezes Sun though very small by this time
• Tiny surf conditions Mon with offshores
• Gusty S/SE winds from Tues to the weekend, with a mix of strong S'ly thru' S/SE swells all week, wind affected in Noerthern NSW and pretty small in SE Qld
• Chance for some unseasonable (?) tropical swell into the longer term

Recap

Building S’ly swells reached a wind affected 4-5ft+ across Northern NSW’s south facing beaches on Thursday, and anywhere between 1ft and 3ft across SE Qld depending on exposure to the south. Today’s seen a similar size but with better quality swell lines, and more manageable winds. 

Peaky afternoon in Caloundra

Late Friday lines at The Pass

This weekend (July 16-17)

No change to the weekend trend outlook, with the current south swell easing rapidly both days, and light variable winds on Saturday in most areas giving way to light to moderate NW breezes in SE Qld on Sunday, which will become stronger as you head south from the border, along with a slight tweak in the direction to the N/NW across the Mid North Coast.

South facing beaches in Northern NSW will pick up the most size, with 3-4ft+ sets at the swell magnets early Saturday easing to 2-3ft by the afternoon, and holding a slow 2ft through Sunday. Expect smaller surf at beaches not open to the south.

North of the border, most beaches will be very small on Saturday (~1ft) but south swell magnets may see early 2ft+ sets before size eases further through the afternoon and into Sunday, when surf prospects will become marginal at all but the most reliable of south swell magnets. 

Next week (July 18 onwards)

Very small surf conditions will persist into Monday morning across the Northern NSW Coast (tiny to flat in SE Qld), with moderate NW tending W/NW winds ahead of a late S’ly change across the lower Mid North Coast.

This will be a precursor to an extended period of fresh S’ly tending S/SE winds from Tuesday through Saturday or Sunday, as a strong frontal system passes through the lower Tasman Sea and a ridge firms along the East Coast. 

We’ll see a building mix of swells during this period: some short range local swell from the ridge but more prominent will be a mix of S’ly groundswell from the parent low/front down south (Tues/Wed) and then a smaller but better S/SE tending SE groundswell sourced from new Tasman Low that will have developed in the wake of the front, off the west coast of New Zealand’s South Island. 

Model guidance is even suggesting a slight retrograde back towards the Australian mainland into Wednesday (see below); and I like this system the best as the swell angle will allow for better size prospects away from south swell magnets, which will be quite wind affected. 

As for size, we can expect a windy 4-6ft at south swell magnets (south from Byron) from late Tues into Wed, with 4-5ft+ S/SE tending SE swell through Thursday and Friday, though I wouldn’t rule out the chance for an upgrade in this pattern and thus bigger surf outlook from the Tasman Low. Of course, it'll be much smaller at beaches with less southerly exposure.

Across SE Qld, the swell direction won’t initially favour much size north of the border (i.e. Tues) but from Wednesday onwards we should start to see some small peelers across the semi-exposed points around the 2ft+ mark. Exposed northern ends will be bigger but much more wind affected. 

Longer term has some some ordinarily unseasonable tropical activity in the Coral Sea, which is seemingly becoming the norm. It’s a long way out and should be viewed with caution, but certainly suggests another pattern of dynamic activity in the Tasman Sea may not be terribly far away.

Have a great weekend!