The gist of it is a trough line in the Coral Sea, which may deepen into a low pressure system and drift towards the North Island (GFS scenario) or move towards the QLD coast as a coastal trough and intensify a NE infeed into the CQ coast, possibly as early as Sun bringing a major increase in E-E/NE swell.
Primary tabs
Some signs of a rebuild in SE-E/SE winds in the Coral Sea next week should add to the mix and hold rideable surf from Tues-Fri.
A high E of NZ is feeding winds into a trough in the Coral Sea and that will hold fun surf today and into tomorrow.
We’ve got large peanut shaped high centred over Tasmania with lobes in the Bight and Tasman Sea. The moist onshore flow from this set-up is flowing into a coastal trough and small trough of low pressure off the NQLD coast bringing fun sized E swell.
Weak but persistent tradewinds in the Coral Sea should hold surf just rideable on low tides. If the retrograding low comes off as modelled we’ll see a nice boost in size from Fri into the weekend.
High pressure in the Tasman is maintaining a ridge along the QLD coast with fun sized surf across the CQ region under mod/fresh SE winds.
The tradewind belt is weak but perisistent enough to produce some just rideable surf across CQ on the right tides.
Weak high pressure in the Tasman is seeing a dissipating tradewind fetch in the Coral Sea so we’ll finally see this run of surf wind down over the weekend, becoming tiny likely by Sat a’noon into Sun.
Into next week and we’ll see a new high pressure system set up a SE surge as we move into the Easter weekend.
Pretty typical late Summer pattern with a high in the Tasman and a maturing trade-wind flow in the Coral Sea, linked to an active monsoon trough with a small embedded low in the Coral Sea. There is a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Carpentaria which formed over the weekend but this system is expected to track inland over the NT and Kimberley regions and not be a swell source for the East Coast.