Mon Update- no change to outlook, tiny/flat this week as Tasman low dominates the space.
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We’ll see a couple of fun days of surf from the initial tradewind fetch feeding into the trough for CQ.
High pressure will be in the Tasman next week with ridge along the sub-tropics and a tradewind fetch enhanced by a long monsoon trough extending from the Indian Ocean across the north of the continent out to the South Pacific Island chains.
Weak high pressure is in the Tasman with a modest tradewind fetch in the Coral Sea with another weak high moving into the Tasman in it’s wake. Trades perk up today into tomorrow suggesting a small bump in size over the weekend into Mon before easing early next week.
We should see fun waves up to the weekend, easing into early next week before rebuilding on the back of a SE surge Wed next week.
High pressure drifts more NE into the Tasman with a weak trade flow sitting in the Central Coral Sea through the mid to end of this week.
Anywhere north of the cyclone, especially north of Fraser (K’gari) will see vastly reduced surf.
With the storm now south of Fraser (K'gari) we’ll see most of the swell blocked by that Island.
TC Alfred is about 730 KM NE of Rockhampton and expected to move southwards today, with a SW track possible into Sat.
If we get the CQ crossing, very serious surf in the 8ft range or bigger is likely Mon into Tues.