Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (updated on Mon Aug4th)

This weekend and next week (Aug4-Aug 16)

Central QLD: Extended surf pattern ahead from this weekend

Tiny surf over the weekend and through this week. Pumping next week.

Not much now, pumping next week

Models are now in broad agreement that over this weekend and into next week, we’ll see a strong, broad and deep E’ly flow develop in the Coral Sea and near South Pacific. This will favour sub-tropical regions for size (at least a chunky tradewind swell) with swell trains buildimng through early next week to full summer strength. A complete 180 degree reversal from the dominant winter pattern and huge Tasman Low event we just experienced. 

Nothing much this week under weak pressure gradients in the Coral Sea.

Strengthening onshore flow Sun as the high cell starts to strengthen and the wind field extends across the Coral Sea. Most of the juice will be next week but by Sun a’noon we should see E/SE swell building into the 2-3ft range.

By Mon we’re expecting a deep E’ly flow to have established through our near South Pacific Island chains and extending into the Coral Sea (see below), possibly with an embedded trough or E’ly dip through the Coral Sea. This Summer pattern is expected to generate sizey E’ly swells for the sub-tropics under SE-E winds, at least for the first half of the week.

Into the mid week and we should see some real size about as the persistent E’ly winds generate a fully developed sea state through our near swell window.

Winds look a bit iffy though as the high moves eastwards, tending more E and then E/NE-NE through mid week. 

That’s still over a week away so we’ve got plenty of time to dial in size and winds but confidence in the general pattern is high due to the model agreement. 

We’ll come back Wed and have a fresh look at it.

Seeya then.