Severe TC Jasper has been slow moving and intensifying (Category 4 now) over the last 36hrs. It’s slow (2-3kts) S/SW track between 158-156E is in the NE swell window. That aids confidence in some NE groundswell from STC Jasper over the weekend.
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By Fri Cat 3 or above TC Jasper will be in the middle of the Coral Sea with increasing swells for CQ.
The headline feature is a potential major tropical cyclone drifting into the Coral Sea with a poleward (southwards) track late this week, over the weekend and into next week. It’s still early days but under certain modelled outcomes we could see a coast hugging system bringing large swells to the CQ coast.
Further ahead and some weather model runs are starting to look pretty damn juicy with respect to a developing TC in the South Pacific moving into the Coral Sea next week. Still very early days but a full blown cyclone swell is now a definite possibility, possibly as early as late next week and into the weekend.
A new high pressure system moves E of Tasmania next week and there is some suggestion we’ll see a SE surge up the coast Tues, with a developing trade-wind flow through the rest of next week. Models are still divergent about the strength of the tradewinds so we’ll keep our jets cooled at far as size goes for now.
Meanwhile the Coral Sea remains filled with weak winds, mostly glassed out over the short term with a N’ly flow developing mid week. We’re looking at continuing tiny/flat conditions this week with just minor NE windswell unlikely to be rideable.
It’s a weak synoptic pattern with no major swell sources and especially light winds across the Coral Sea.That will keep this f/cast update short- no surf to speak of.
With weak winds in the Coral Sea we’ll see tiny surf this week. Not dead flat, there’ll be just enough swell energy from a constant regime of weak E’ly winds to hold a very small weak swell, possibly just surfable on low tides.
Into next week and a large blocking high moving into the Tasman over the weekend is now weaker than expected and the resultant trade flow through the Coral Sea is also much weaker.
Therefore we’re now only looking at tiny surf for next week
In addition a quick pulse of E/SE swell from TC Mal as it races through the swell window is expected Sat into with some 2ft sets.