A complex inland trough low tied to tropical sources exits the coast as a strong high moves into the Bight. Following that a coastal trough in the Northern Tasman then deepens, likely into a surface low which may drift southwards bringing strong E swells to the entire region, possibly followed by a return S swell as the low gets captured by an approaching front.

Weak coastal troughiness will contract to the North Coast on Thursday though lingering onshore SE winds are a risk north from Sydney.

For now, frontal activity is being allowed to track in a more favourable manner for S swell production so we’ll see a week of small/moderate S swell pulses leading into the Easter weekend.

The NZ high has generated a useful fetch of tradewinds in the eastern swell window, which has maintained E’ly swells in the sub-tropics, E/NE in temperate regions. That trade fetch breaks down in the short term before rebuilding again at more Northern latitudes. We’ll see some frontal activity over the weekend before another strong, blocking high sets up a ridge next week.