Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed August 7th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Marginal surf Thurs with early NW winds freshening N/NE 
• Possibly some just rideable NE windswell late Thurs into Fri AM with winds swinging NW Fri
• Small S bump Fri 
• Slight better S/SE swell pulse Sat with light winds tending S-S/SE
• Light winds tending onshore Sun with small leftovers
• Small surf to start next week with onshore winds
• Summer style E/NE swells from Tues next week as broad E’ly flow establishes in Coral Sea and extends into Northern Tasman

Recap

Small fun E’ly swells in the 2-3ft range yesterday slowly ebbed away to 2ft over so during the day. Nice clean conditions for the morning under offshore breezes. This morning is holding small clean surf with the occ. 2ft+ set providing a rideable wave with light offshore breezes, expected to tend to variable breezes during the day.

Still the odd small, clean wave around this morning

This week (Aug 7-9)

Nice and quiet in the Tasman Sea after last weeks monster low. A trough of low pressure has cleared the coast and a large area of high pressure is drifting over NSW into the Tasman, expected to strengthen and be reinforced by another area of high pressure driftiong over the continent. A low is transiting the lower Tasman, while the remnants of the Tasman are drifting Eastwards in the South Pacific. Over the weekend and next week the large high complex builds a broad E’ly fetch through the South Pacific and into the Coral Sea, generating sizey E swells for the sub-tropics with smaller E/NE swells filtering down to temperate NSW.

In the short run, not much action. Small swells in the 1-2ft range, remnant E swells and some small S swells should provide enough energy at exposed breaks to ride a shortboard with clean conditions early under W-W/NW wind which will tend NW then N-N/NE’ly at mod paces in the a’noon. Small amounts of NE windswell potentially offer some sub 2ft sidewinders in the late a’noon.

Another small blend for Fri. Minor amounts of NE windswell in the mix with more small mid period S swells offering up a few 2ft sets at S facing beaches. Early winds from the NW to N then trend around NW before laying down and ending up as light/variable seabreezes in a weak, troughy environment. Another day of small surf with a a few workable options at magnets.

This weekend (Aug 10-11)

Not a lot of energy in the ocean over the weekend but a little flare up of the low as it approaches New Zealand longitudes tomorrow looks to send a small pulse of S-S/SE swell for Sat. That should see some 2 occ. 3ft surf at S exposed breaks, with a wait for sets. A weak S’ly flow is expected but we should see clean conditions for the early with W-W/SW winds before they clock around SW to end up S-S/SE.

That pulse fades out for Sun so a very small blend of leftover swells from the S/SE and E will hold a 1 to occ. 2ft set across open beaches. Similar winds for Sun so the early should see a small, clean wave across open beaches- possibly a little ruffled at straight S facing breaks.

Next week (Aug 12 onwards)

No change to the broad pattern expected next week which is strong high pressure in the Tasman and a deep E’ly fetch developing. There is some uncertainty about a potential trough off the North Coast or SEQLD. That does affect Mondays outlook in a minor fashion. We may possibly see an earlier increase in size Mon, up into the 2 occ. 3ft range if something does deepen in the Northern Tasman Sun or Mon.

If not, we’ll see small surf Mon in the 1-2ft range.

By Tues we see summer style E/NE swells filtering down from the sub-tropics, likely pushing up from 2ft to 2 occ. 3ft with winds tending N’ly through the day after a morning land breeze.

Up a notch Wed as more local E/NE-NE swells join the party from the backside of the high as it moves away. We’ll probably be tweaking local winds as a trough moves up the coast- so expect N’lies and a S’ly change at some point.

No great size from that source for the rest of the week. The broad E’ly fetch washes out and an E/NE infeed into a local trough is currently modelled as being fairly weak. 

It should hold surf from the E/NE in the 2-3ft range though, into Fri.

Of course, if any of those troughy features develop further we could be in for an upgrade.

High confidence there will be at least a few fun waves from that direction through the middle of next week.

A deep polar low later next week looks better aimed at Pacific target and a large complex low under the continent will be focussed on southern states. We’ll keep tabs on those and report back on Fri to check on their surf potential for the east coast.

Seeya then.