Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 31st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Oversized S/SE-SE groundswell Wed, easing slowly Thu, more noticeably into Fri
• Strong S/SW winds, tending SW for a period each morning
• Should see some more E/SE angled swell in the mix Fri (bigger on the weekend)
• Easing mid-period S/SE-SE swell Sat, with a mod-large E-E/SE'ly swell for Sat/Sun
• Slowly easing E swell next week with light winds
• W/SW tending weak sea breezey Sat
• May see some SW-S wind Sun under weak front
• Nothing much on the radar next week so make the most of easing swells Mon-Wed

Recap

Large to XL swells from the S yesterday in the 8-10ft range with early W/SW winds tending SW-S during the day. Swells were energetic and raw and only suitable for the most experienced at locations with a bit of wind protection. Bigger today,  as a new pulse fills in with stronger swell periods. Sets are in excess of 10ft, with much bigger waves at exposed breaks. Early winds are offshore but swells are still raw from the local sea state so it’s another day of very large surf suitable for only the most experienced at locations with some wind protection.

L to XL surf

This week (Jul 31 - Aug 2)

No change to the outlook as a massive, slow moving low pressure system in the Tasman and strong high over Tasmania combine to fill the Tasman Sea with gales to strong gales generating L to XL surf. We are starting to see that system slowly move north and the more southwards fetch start to ease in strength through today and into tomorrow. That will be offset by a developing fetch of gales off the North Island, which will supply reinforcing energy from the SE-E/SE Fri a’noon over the weekend. Local winds will slowly ease by Fri and look good for the weekend.

In the short run, still L to XL surf tomorrow with sets to 10-12ft across a wide range of locations, only becoming smaller into sheltered corners. We should see similar morning winds as today- SW with a more W/SW or even W’ly flow north of the Harbour before winds swing SW-S at mod/fresh paces. Expect a slow easing off the top end of size in the a’noon with 8-10ft sets still on the table.

Friday should see a more marked improvement in winds as pressure gradients start to ease on our side of the Tasman. Dominant S/SE swell to 6-8ft will slowly ease through the day. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes showing the fetch already building off the North Island suggest we’ll see a pulse of SE-E/SE swell to 3-5ft fill in during the a’noon, with the main pulse from that direction showing on Sat.

This weekend (Aug 3-4)

Improving wind outlook continues into the weekend with Sat looking primo under a light, lingering offshore flow finally swinging to a light seabreeze in the a’noon. A mix of leftover S/SE to 5-6ft and building E/SE to 4-6ft is expected. Models suggest the biggest pulse in the a’noon but as mentioned ASCAT passes would indicate a possible earlier arrival time. Sat should be pumping however you slice it.

Sunday should see good winds again with a weak front bringing a light W tending SW flow. We may see some S wind kick up depending on the front. At this stage it looks weak and transient so winds should back down quickly even if we do see some S’ly flow. We’ll take a last look at winds on Fri. A really fun blend of SE-E/SE swells should hold 4-5ft sets (maybe still the occ 6ft set at exposed breaks) with a slow and steady easing trend becoming apparent by lunchtime.

Next week (Aug 5 onwards)

No major swell sources on the radar for next week at this stage so we’ll see easing swells from the current Tasman low. 

High pressure moves intro the Tasman and we should see some glorious days with light winds Mon to Wed. Light offshores should tend to light/variable seabreezes in the a’noon.

We’ll just see a slow, steady roll-off in size with Mon still seeing a few 3-4ft sets, smaller 3ft on Tues. Wave models are still suggesting a minor blip in size Tues but current modelling doesn’t support that. We’ll update Fri but confidence is high the general trend will be down. 

By Wed surf will be around the 2ft range.

Current modelling suggests a few days then into the end of next week of similar sized or smaller surf. 

We may see a small trough develop off the NSW Coast late next week which may supply some modest short range SE-E/SE swell but confidence is low this far out.

Check back Fri and we’ll have a fresh look at it.

Seeya then.