Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 26th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf Sat, extending into Sun AM
• Freshening W’ly winds Sun, tending strong W/SW-SW as front and low form in Tasman
• Modest late spike in S swell now likely Sun
• Strong, winter-calibre S tending SE swell next week as strong low sits in Tasman
• Very large S swell Mon, tending S/SE then SE and remaining high right through the week
• L-XL reinforcing pulse likely Wed with better winds
• Fresh SW-S winds next week, slowly easing into the end of the week
• Surf closely easing into next weekend

Recap

A few leftover S/SE swell trains supplied some 2ft sets yesterday morning under clean conditions before N’lies kicked up and made a mess of things. Just some tiny NE windswell in the water this morning, 1-1.5ft tops, with light W-NW winds, expected to swirl around from W’ly to light and variable in the a’noon. 

Tiny, gentle surf this morning.

This weekend (July 27-28)

No great change to the weekend outlook. Take the day off Sat. No surf to speak of, just a tiny mixed signal in the 1ft range at best. Conditions will be clean under light NW tending W-W/SW winds as a trough approaches and clears the coast.

By Sunday the trough and an approaching cold front will interact and form a surface low which is expected to deepen rapidly with strong high pressure support to the west. 

The morning and right through to lunch at least should remain tiny/flat as W’lies start to freshen. Through the late morning we’ll see strong to possible low end gale force W/SW-SW winds develop as the low winds up. A late kick in size now looks to be muted as most of the winds are pushing away from the coast and the swell generating component builds later in the day. Nonetheless , we should still see a kick in size from flat to 3ft at S exposed breaks, under current modelling. This would be concentrated in the last 2hrs of daylight, so don’t be surprised if it still looks tiny between 2-3pm. 

Next week (July 29 onwards)

Gales to strong gales develop later Sun and o/night into Mon as a complex low forms  in the Tasman. Multiple swell generating fetches are expected to form and sling shot around this huge, slow moving low gyre. Thus we can expect an extend period of large surf next week with embedded pulses from the S through S/SE-SE as the week goes on.

For Mon we’ll see an initial peak in large, local S swell with a raw edge to it. Expect size up in the 8-10ft range, bigger 10ft+ at bommies (even a few bigger sets at exposed, open ocean bommies). Lots of wind to go with it. Fresh S/SW-SW winds early, clocking around SW through S/SW during the day. Smaller, but still sizey surf at more protected locations.

Still very solid Tues, just down a notch from Mon’s peak but with initial S swell augmented by new S/SE swell as a fetch develops on the more eastern side of the Tasman. Similar winds, possibly just a notch lighter but confining clean conditions to more sheltered spots.

By Wed, the fetch that developed towards the South Island Mon into Tues and retrogrades in a similar manner to June’s solstice swell, will see a strong new rebuild in S/SE-SE swell. Likely building back into the 10ft+ range with bigger 12ft sets likely if current modelling plays out.This second pulse is likelty to be the peak of the swell and similar in magnitude to the June Solstice swell.

We should see local winds relax a notch and tend more W-W/SW through the morning before clocking back around SW-S. That opens up more big wave potential for temperate NSW. Keep Wednesday clear if you have big boards and skills for big waves. 

Only a very slow easing expected for the second half of next week as the low slowly dissipates. 

Expect solid surf Thurs in the 6 occ. 8ft range with lighter offshore winds.

Slowly dropping through Fri and even remaining solid 4-5ft on Sat. 

If the first half of the week was too big or raggedy for your skills/experience or surf spots we should see a wider range of surf spots lighting up into the second half of the week, suiting a wider range of skill sets.

In short, another extended event of pumping surf, although windy for the first half of it.

High pressure looks to move into the Tasman next weekend, suggesting a much quieter week beginning 5/8.

Get the big boards prepped and seeya Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!