Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon July 22nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Rideable S swell leftovers at S swell magnets Tues, easing during the day under morning offshore winds and a'noon seabreezes
• Tiny/flat surf Wed
• Possibly rideable NE windswell Thurs PM, extending into Fri AM with winds shifting offshore Fri
• Tiny surf Sat, extending into Sun
• Low confidence in outlook due to model divergence
• Possible S swell next week or remaining tiny- check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Small S swell Sat in the 1-1.5ft range was borderline unsurfable due to howling westerlies. Sunday started small but S swell spiked hard after lunch, reaching the 4-5ft range at a few S facing beaches and reefs. It was a quick up and down, with an easing trend already in play by nightfall and continuing overnight with a few clean leftovers to 2-3ft this morning and the occ. 4footer still around on the Hunter. We have a very quiet period ahead. Details below.

Hunter region takes the bikkies this morning for most S swell size

This week (July 22-26)

As outlined on Friday the Tasman Sea takes a breather this week with a large (1028hPa) high slowly moving over NSW and QLD to enter the Tasman through tomorrow. The remnants of the weekend’s front and low are weakening  and rotating out of the swell window as they sweep across New Zealand. Following that we’ve got a spring like week ahead with only some minor NE windswell to offer up some rideable waves. Tiny surf looks to extend into the weekend with next week offering up a chance of a S swell to break the flat spell although there is substantial model divergence over a potential frontal intrusion into the Tasman.

Short term there should be a few rideable leftovers from the S-S/SE at S swell magnets tomorrow. Nothing major but we should see some 2 and very occ. 3ft sets at the best swell magnets early before it dribbles away to less than 2ft in the a’noon. Nice and clean with a W-W/NW flow and light a’noon N’ly on it. 

Hard to see anything rideable on Wed but if there is it’ll be at wide open S facing stretches or due S facing coves which might be able to hoover up a rideable wave in the 1-1.5ft range. Tiny to flat elsewhere. Early NW winds will tend N’ly and freshen as the high moves out into the Tasman and an inland trough starts to approach through Western NSW.

That increasing N’ly flow looks poorly aligned through Thurs but we may see some rideable NE windswell start to show in the a’noon under mod fresh NW tending N’ly winds. Best case, we’ll see some 2ft sidewinders develop through Thurs a’noon but keep expectations pegged low.

Small amounts of NE windswell may persist briefly into Fri morning offering a chance of a rideable wave in the 1-2ft range. The passage of the  trough and a frontal system though Bass Strait will see winds shift from NW through W/NW-W so any swell remaining will be nice and groomed. By close of play we should be back to tiny/flat surf.

This weekend (July 27-28)

Looking very quiet at this stage. Tiny/flat surf extends into Sat with light W’lies and a’noon NE seabreezes. Nice for a snorkel on the inshore ledges. There’s a slim chance we may see a few rideable waves at S swell magnets generated by Fridays weak front. We’ll update that through the week.

Small again Sun with offshore winds tending S-SE as another weak front pushes into the Tasman. This is where our model divergence kicks in. EC is progging a much stronger, winter standard front through Sun that would see a late kick in new S swell with a significant amount of size- up into the 4-5ft range at least and bigger into Mon.

GFS has a very different scenario with a weak front that skips away quickly to the NE, leading to tiny surf Sun, with a small pulse Mon.

Next week (July 29 onwards)

Low confidence on the outlook until we get some model agreement happening. Under the EC scenario we are looking at a slow moving low in the Tasman with a winter-calibre S swell event at least until mid next week. 

GFS would herald in more tiny surf until mid next week, at least.

Both models are interested in an area of low pressure near Fiji later this week. It slides away to the SE on a sub-tropical ridge so swell potential is far from ideal, but it does show signs of deepening and forming quite an impressive system in the South Pacific. In the absence of anything major we’ll flag it for now and see how it develops. We may see some small, long range and very inconsistent E swell from it. 

We’ll have a better idea if the flat spell continues into next week on Wed, so check back in then.

Seeya then.